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Mar 26, 2020
3:16
:43
pm
777
Living Rent Free In CB Heads
I think places like Utah will just have a more slow natural curve even when
things are open. I think it's the big dense population centers that risk the hospital overflow.
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777
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Cougarfan777
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777
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Oct 26, 2014
Last login
Apr 24, 2024
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54,660 (3,453 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
I've been working on overlaying daily death data by country (links inside)
CSoul
3/25/20 11:36pm
Spain - yikes.
cougfanblue
3/25/20 11:40pm
Netherlands is also on a similar trajectory
CSoul
3/25/20 11:45pm
The U.K. too. And New York.
chilango
3/25/20 11:51pm
Obviously I would have to lower the start number, but Washington
CSoul
3/25/20 11:56pm
I think Washington has definitely hit its peak. UW hospital is slowing down, and
wabluecoug
3/26/20 12:01am
Yes it does. Much of their outbreak was confined to a large nursing home.
CougarThug
3/26/20 12:09am
I think they hit a peak even throwing that out. But with states and cities
CSoul
3/26/20 12:12am
I would be interested in Japan as we were supposed to go their for spring break.
Osteotome
3/26/20 2:11am
That's more a reflection on the amount of people they're testing. Which until this week was not much at all.
Cheesy Gordita
3/26/20 5:48am
I think closing schools and churches and gatherings was enough
Acorn
3/26/20 3:27am
Really makes that China data look believable, doesn’t it
Mike Honcho
3/25/20 11:46pm
But their peak still hit at the same exact time as Italy and Iran
CSoul
3/25/20 11:48pm
Yeah, less the shape and more the numbers is what I’m skeptical about
Mike Honcho
3/25/20 11:48pm
They incinerated their data.
cougfanblue
3/25/20 11:53pm
I'd guess urbanization rate, life expectancy and climate correlate strongly with
bruincoug
3/25/20 11:49pm
The only difference seems to be the height of the peak, not the timeframe
CSoul
3/25/20 11:52pm
Well, kind of. All of them went into lockdown and took dramatic action to try to
chilango
3/25/20 11:58pm
I think it controls for the peak size, not the shape
CSoul
3/25/20 11:59pm
I think it would also lengthen the amount of time before you reach the peak,
chilango
3/26/20 12:31am
Then there would be a difference between Iran, Italy, and China
CSoul
3/26/20 12:39am
Agreed...
777
3/26/20 12:00am
I mean why the difference in peak size
bruincoug
3/26/20 12:06am
I would expect the US to have a longer timeframe or perhaps multiple peaks
BYUCLA
3/26/20 12:06am
Seems likely. I expect early peaks to be highest, though (NY/NJ)
bruincoug
3/26/20 12:07am
Not much longer. And many areas just won't really have a "peak"
CSoul
3/26/20 12:10am
Right, the US is so large that it is more like a continent. For comparisons to
chilango
3/26/20 12:12am
I am getting state data and will link them tomorrow
CSoul
3/26/20 12:13am
For smaller states, you could also group them together into “natural” regions
chilango
3/26/20 12:19am
It's not like the virus is traveling by horseback. It's traveling by airplane.
777
3/26/20 12:17am
This time last week you denied it was a problem. Now it's flying.
ClackamasCoug
3/26/20 2:19am
Link? I've been saying it's everywhere for the last month.
777
3/26/20 2:26am
I don’t think anyone’s contended at any point that it’s not contagious
Mike Honcho
3/26/20 2:27am
If it was traveling by airplane everywhere then everyone
kimdaddy35
3/26/20 2:51am
Of course it's traveling by airplane everywhere. How do you think it's
777
3/26/20 3:10am
Your basing your assumption off of China?
kimdaddy35
3/26/20 3:45am
I just offered an explanation and they've been offered elsewhere. There are
777
3/26/20 4:59am
We differ in opinion then, but I hope you are right
kimdaddy35
3/26/20 10:44am
I think places like Utah will just have a more slow natural curve even when
777
3/26/20 3:16pm
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