The part about his model being wrong and changing 500k to 20k deaths was wrong.

Mar 26, 2020
10:11:07pm

chilango Intervention Needed

The part about him “walking back” his model was even more wrong, and just plain false. Pretty much made up out of whole cloth.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Mar 26, 2020 at 10:11:07pm

Message modified by chilango on Mar 26, 2020 at 10:20:06pm

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chilango

Bio page: chilango
Joined: Jul 23, 2009
Last login: Dec 27, 2020
Total posts: 25,771 (33 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being “walked back.”

All-American

3/26/20 8:57pm

RE: It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being

Samsonite

3/26/20 9:00pm

RE: It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being

coolcats

3/26/20 9:08pm

RE: It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being

Samsonite

3/26/20 9:09pm

RE: It is absolutely untrue that the Imperial College report is being

coolcats

3/26/20 9:18pm

Good reply here.

JohnnyComeLately

3/26/20 9:00pm

Also, the current numbers coming in don’t reflect the effect of the measures

Samsonite

3/26/20 9:02pm

He’s not looking at “a couple of days.” He’s looking forward.

All-American

3/26/20 9:11pm

Based on numbers not adding up as he predicted.

Samsonite

3/26/20 9:12pm

This is 100% fiction.

All-American

3/26/20 9:18pm

How embarrassing for him to be that wrong.

Samsonite

3/26/20 9:22pm

Exactly.

Benfica1

3/26/20 9:11pm

lol. I have no dog in the fight. I think there is a very real chance we are overreacting. But a

Clark Addison

3/26/20 9:24pm

Cool.

JohnnyComeLately

3/26/20 9:26pm

So, as I suspected, you have nothing intelligent to say. Or worse, nothing interesting. 🙁

Clark Addison

3/26/20 9:31pm

No I just don’t care to argue.

JohnnyComeLately

3/26/20 9:33pm

My condolences to your wife...

So it goes...

3/26/20 10:45pm

Thank you.

JohnnyComeLately

3/26/20 10:58pm

It's a good reply because what the expert is saying makes no sense.

HONOMO

3/26/20 10:55pm

Dumb reply, actually. Go back and read his original paper, and you’ll see that

chilango

3/26/20 10:24pm

UK just barely started serious suppression.

HONOMO

3/26/20 10:56pm

Doesn’t matter. You can model it before it even begins. In fact, he did model

chilango

3/26/20 11:08pm

It seems like a convenient cop out to me

HONOMO

3/26/20 11:21pm

Let me use an example. Let’s say I’m trying to model someone’s weight loss

chilango

3/26/20 11:44pm

I think you missed some key words in my post b/c your example is irrelevant

HONOMO

3/27/20 12:11am

The best case scenario by following the strict guidelines was a million US deaths

JohnnyComeLately

3/27/20 12:29am

But if you read the study, the best-case scenario he modeled was modest and

chilango

3/27/20 12:40am

I literally linked and screenshot the New York Times article that most of us are basing our opinion on.

JohnnyComeLately

3/27/20 12:44am

Ok, what I see is an opinion piece in which the writer quotes an offhand remark

chilango

3/27/20 12:57am

An offhand remark where he specifically stated the best case scenario is 1.1 million US deaths?

JohnnyComeLately

3/27/20 9:51am

1.1 million was the projection in the original analysis.....

The Shazad

3/27/20 5:46am

Oh, come on. It is being "walked back". When you make sensational predictions

BeardedSpock

3/26/20 9:05pm

No, it is not. Absolutely it is not.

All-American

3/26/20 9:10pm

He's still guessing. His guesses are more educated than the average person's

BeardedSpock

3/26/20 9:14pm

Yes, it is. Absolutely it is.

Benfica1

3/26/20 9:16pm

Seems like he’s deliberately making the report unfalsifiable

hansel

3/26/20 9:18pm

The panic peddling liberals always had the out in their back pocket

bluelands

3/26/20 9:23pm

I suppose we could do nothing and count the bodies.

All-American

3/26/20 9:25pm

The report said we needed to keep the measures up until a vaccine. Is there a

Harbinger

3/26/20 9:18pm

False. Dude was wrong. I would eviscerate this guy in a courtroom.

shammy

3/26/20 9:19pm

I bet you could run a 4.4 40 too.

All-American

3/26/20 9:22pm

Are you married to his sister or something?

Benfica1

3/26/20 9:24pm

I’m predicting I can run a 4.4, but then I’ll revise it after I hit 4.4 seconds

Samsonite

3/26/20 9:26pm

That was cute. I’ll credit you that.

All-American

3/26/20 9:32pm

No, 5.9. but I’m excellent in the courtroom.

shammy

3/26/20 9:26pm

Remind me not to hire you as my lawyer. You would be crushed in the courtroom,

chilango

3/26/20 9:40pm

This is a desperate and angst filled post.

CoachSpeak

3/27/20 9:04am

they published another study today THAT SAID THE SAME THING

The Shazad

3/26/20 9:27pm

Yes, I get all the caveats and conditions and "to be sures". But that's not

BeardedSpock

3/26/20 9:38pm

like I said, the new publication today has the same projections

The Shazad

3/26/20 9:47pm

To say he’s using the same assumptions is flat out false.

Bostonblue

3/26/20 10:49pm

yes, it went up and made the projections go up a little too

The Shazad

3/26/20 10:56pm

He's changing his assumptions based on something he's seen. Yet, he won't

Bostonblue

3/27/20 9:25am

he's provided his code to a couple organizations so they can clean it up

The Shazad

3/27/20 9:30am

haha. Okay.

Bostonblue

3/27/20 9:32am

you think he didn't? what is the concern here?

The Shazad

3/27/20 9:39am

I've spoken with several doctors, including infectious disease experts, and they

Bostonblue

3/27/20 9:47am

I don't think it's scripture - it's probably wrong

The Shazad

3/27/20 10:05am

I agree the headlines got it wrong. But at a minimum, I still don't understand

Bostonblue

3/27/20 10:09am

I think it's in part...

The Shazad

3/27/20 10:22am

Cut them some slack. Their real expertise is predicting global warming...

Jasbo

3/26/20 9:56pm

Except nobody is doing nothing so why bother with that stat

BYU '80

3/26/20 10:28pm

Fake News

chilango

3/26/20 9:32pm

Fox News said so

coolcats

3/26/20 9:40pm

Is that why so many here believe this demonstrably false nonsense? I didn’t

chilango

3/26/20 9:42pm

it became a thing in conservative media today

The Shazad

3/26/20 9:45pm

Yes, that dastardly "conservative media", they made it up out of whole cloth

BeardedSpock

3/26/20 10:03pm

The part about his model being wrong and changing 500k to 20k deaths was wrong.

chilango

3/26/20 10:11pm

read that article then read some of the hot takes on it today

The Shazad

3/26/20 10:18pm

He should reject his model. His pride won’t let him

BYU '80

3/26/20 10:30pm

Extreme cases get modeled all the time. I just did one at work this week, which

chilango

3/26/20 10:34pm

the paper admits that it is likely that people's behavior would change

The Shazad

3/26/20 10:38pm

That number not being relevant is a fact

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:06am

Here is the critical piece you are missing.

All-American

3/26/20 10:26pm

So it’s the msm fault for pushing the extreme numbers as likely outcomes

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:08am

It's not being walked back, it's being proved wrong. Completely.

Harbinger

3/26/20 9:15pm

Of course.... LOL. I think we ALL saw that excuse coming.

kotacoug

3/26/20 9:27pm

The “excuse”? Meaning, actually trying to stop the spread of the disease?

All-American

3/26/20 9:31pm

Imperial College will go down in infamy as the biggest catastrophic load of crap

kotacoug

3/26/20 9:30pm

I honestly can't figure out why it became the gold standard when there were so

777

3/26/20 10:00pm

The media. Enemy of the people

YIsForBrigham

3/26/20 11:29pm

No, the only people who will think this are those who don’t understand modeling,

chilango

3/26/20 10:18pm

If the liberal press has anything to do with it I’m sure he will. We’ll

kotacoug

3/26/20 10:54pm

This has nothing to do with liberal or conservative. It has to do with math,

chilango

3/26/20 10:57pm

Yes the math was spot on. All the numbers were gross miscalculations and

kotacoug

3/26/20 11:18pm

No, you’re just making stuff up. That’s not what happened, nor is it how

chilango

3/26/20 11:47pm

If only we were all as gifted as you

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:09am

It’s a waste of time. People believe what they want.

Josef K

3/26/20 10:13pm

As do you on any number of topics

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:11am

I want to believe that the US will be roaring back to work by Easter.

Josef K

3/27/20 2:30am

That looks like the Miriam-Webster's definition of "Walked back" to me

DeekLyfter

3/26/20 10:19pm

Which part?

All-American

3/26/20 10:30pm

The whole statement. You can tell from the part he says that it isn't a walk

DeekLyfter

3/26/20 10:32pm

Why speak about the projection at all

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:13am

Because people think he is walking back the original, which is 100% false.

All-American

3/27/20 7:50am

But things have already been done so it’s a worthless projection at this point

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:11am

He should be fired until everyone who has lost their job is re-employed.

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