It sounds like the assumptions of the model don't currently match the reality on the ground independent of quarantine measures taken.

Think about it. What are the chances the initial assumptions of the model match reality? It's ok. It's just a model.

I think the more data that comes out, the less deadly this thing is going to look, but there will be excuses galore and rationalizations galore for the reaction.

The initial data out if Iceland for example where they can test their population already looks way better than what has been peddled so far.

I'm also not complaining about the actions taken because we didn't know the reality. We still don't. I just feel like the reality is trending toward what I just described. But getting to the truth will be difficult with everyone trying to save face.

I'm not holding my breath for someone to say "yeah... My model was ridiculously far off and I needlessly drove the world into a depression." Even though most reasonable people wouldn't blame them for it.