Mar 26, 2020
11:37:17pm
11:37:17pm
Your extrapolations are so simplistic that it’s hard to take you seriously
Things to consider:
- Population density
- Age demographics
- Health demographics
- Quality of healthcare
- Availability of healthcare
- Concentration of cases
- Quarantine measures
- Availability of tests
- Cultural norms (e.g., shaking hands, kissing, etc.)
- Cultural hygiene practices
- Climate
- Delay between first detection and policy measures
And a whole bunch more that neither of us have probably ever thought of. You can’t just say “the US has a population about 5 times the size of Italy, so multiply their deaths by 5!” And expect people to take you seriously.
- Population density
- Age demographics
- Health demographics
- Quality of healthcare
- Availability of healthcare
- Concentration of cases
- Quarantine measures
- Availability of tests
- Cultural norms (e.g., shaking hands, kissing, etc.)
- Cultural hygiene practices
- Climate
- Delay between first detection and policy measures
And a whole bunch more that neither of us have probably ever thought of. You can’t just say “the US has a population about 5 times the size of Italy, so multiply their deaths by 5!” And expect people to take you seriously.
- Previous username
- BYUCoug11
- Bio page
- Mike Honcho
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2011
- Last login
- Apr 25, 2024
- Total posts
- 53,975 (10,324 FO)
Messages
Time
3/26/20 10:36pm
3/26/20 11:05pm
3/26/20 11:23pm
Very quickly we’re at 5 million dead per day, then the next week 25 million per day, then we’re really toast once
3/26/20 11:06pm
3/26/20 11:21pm
3/26/20 11:38pm
3/27/20 12:12am
3/26/20 11:37pm
3/27/20 1:31am
3/27/20 4:02am