But if you read the study, the best-case scenario he modeled was modest and
assumed all businesses stayed open, along with theaters, malls, restaurants, spas, gyms, stadiums, arenas, parks, concert halls, etc. At least for the U.K. It also assumed 25% of universities kept operating as usual. The only things it really shut down were schools, and it had some quarantining of the over-70 crowd. In other words, it didn’t come close to modeling the lockdowns, sports league cancellations, shelter-in-place, WFH, etc that have actually occurred.
I will say though that I didn’t see any US projections in the study, and maybe he didn’t model the US very well. I don’t know what he assumed or how he modeled the US. The study I read modeled the U.K., and nothing he said yesterday or today seems inconsistent with his model. The change in deaths simply reflected moving from the “do-nothing” scenario he had modeled to a lock-down scenario more stringent than anything he modeled in his paper.