https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext

"The maximum incubation period is assumed to be up to 14 days,2 whereas the median time from onset of symptoms to intensive care unit (ICU) admission is around 10 days.3, 4 Recently, WHO reported that the time between symptom onset and death ranged from about 2 weeks to 8 weeks.5"

Remember, this is from "symptom onset", so that is after incubation period. I have no idea where you saw your numbers. Here is some more, and they all land on the same conclusion.



"On average, patients were middle-aged (median, 56 years), and 62% were men. The median time from illness onset to hospital release was 22 days, and the average time from onset to death was 18.5 days. Patients who died were, on average, 69 years old, versus 52 years in survivors."

Remember, onset means symptoms and DOES NOT include incubation. There is no data that says lockdowns are more advantageous than strict social distancing, and the curve does not seem to change timing based on method, just the severity of the peak. If you can show me an actual country or city that proves me wrong I would be glad to look at it. 2 weeks is the minimum to see a change.