measures have kept Italy from hundreds of thousands of deaths in the last 10 days and are not based on reality. It's based on the idea of an exponential curve and people with a couple of math credits now thinking they understand disease progressions. Not even the black plague increased at the rate your suggesting.
Sorry, I don't mean to be so short and to the point. But this analysis is ridiculous. There's not a single actual epidemiologist on the planet that thinks this thing doubles the way you are suggesting it does.