It depends on how big of an area you are drawing from

Mar 27, 2020
3:08:16am

Josef K Intervention Needed

In a localized out break no, but with multiple, simultaneous outbreaks it could.

Worldwide the death rate continues to accelerate. In Western Europe it continues to accelerate. The us is big enough that you could have something similar.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Mar 27, 2020 at 3:08:16am

Message modified by Josef K on Mar 27, 2020 at 3:08:55am

Message modified by Josef K on Mar 27, 2020 at 3:38:19am

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Josef K

Previous username: UCB Coug
New username: Jay Kay
Bio page: Josef K
Joined: Jan 12, 2011
Last login: Jun 9, 2020
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Messages

Author

Time

March 26, 268 deaths; March 19, 56 deaths; March 12, 3 deaths.

UpperCirqueUte

3/26/20 10:36pm

We have seen a slowdown in the daily rate of increase the past couple days

jkccoug

3/26/20 10:41pm

And could this mean the strict public health measures are working? That

UpperCirqueUte

3/26/20 10:48pm

Probably not far enough along in the government mandated shut downs for them to make a difference in deaths right now

YIsForBrigham

3/26/20 10:53pm

I think we are far enough along in the public health changes to see a major

UpperCirqueUte

3/26/20 11:05pm

Maybe. Washington shut down schools on March 12. They were the first state to do so right? Most everything I’ve read

YIsForBrigham

3/26/20 11:10pm

But lots of people were practicing social distancing before March 12.

UpperCirqueUte

3/26/20 11:14pm

Exactly. That’s why I said this:

YIsForBrigham

3/26/20 11:17pm

Who? Every school and stadium was packed.

777

3/26/20 11:28pm

Not in Washington. Or in the Bay Area. They were social distancing well before March 12. And they’ve also seen very

YIsForBrigham

3/26/20 11:35pm

Even if we are, we’re testing more and more every day, which means we’ll have more positive cases

Mike Honcho

3/26/20 11:48pm

It’s hard to know in real time. We actually had two days with lower

jkccoug

3/26/20 11:08pm

Every politician is banking on us thinking these measures were the key

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:35am

Let's be honest, you wouldn't change your view regardless of the trend.

garyfan

3/27/20 12:50am

Hopefully this little plateau continues for a couple of days. It may flare up again if other cities see an outbreak

YIsForBrigham

3/26/20 10:51pm

Not sure what data is key, but death rates are steady at 10-14% increases

Joe Banks

3/26/20 11:00pm

I think he means literally the last two days have seen flattening in growth of deaths per day. Which is true.

YIsForBrigham

3/26/20 11:03pm

I don’t see those numbers as a possibility. Maybe I’m wrong and

The Dude Abides

3/26/20 10:43pm

I don’t think that with strict public health measures that it gets that bad.

UpperCirqueUte

3/26/20 10:50pm

85873 total cases from the 100s in just two weeks. 16650 new cases yesterday alone, 1299 deaths.. and you think

ChinaFan

3/26/20 10:52pm

Denominator. It’s important

YIsForBrigham

3/26/20 10:55pm

You’re assuming there were just 100s two weeks ago. There were 100s that were tested and confirmed but undoubtedly

Pistol Shrimp

3/26/20 10:56pm

Oh... and I don’t trust any of China’s reported numbers. So comparisons to China

BoiseBlueCoug

3/26/20 11:56pm

Looks like warmer temps coming could be helpful based on research

BYU '80

3/27/20 12:38am

This assumes that those who have caught the virus are identical to the remaining population that have not.

Pistol Shrimp

3/26/20 10:51pm

Holy math....

DeekLyfter

3/26/20 10:59pm

We all agree that if we get to the point that 6,000 are dying a day from

UpperCirqueUte

3/26/20 11:02pm

No.

Plato

3/26/20 11:05pm

What on Earth makes you think it's going to get to that?

DeekLyfter

3/26/20 11:21pm

Math. Didn't you read his post?

Plato

3/26/20 11:23pm

RE: March 26, 268 deaths; March 19, 56 deaths; March 12, 3 deaths.

EMAC

3/26/20 11:02pm

Well, looks like somewhere between May 21 and May 28 we’re all dead.

bluecheese

3/26/20 11:03pm

Very quickly we’re at 5 million dead per day, then the next week 25 million per day, then we’re really toast once

Pistol Shrimp

3/26/20 11:06pm

I hope it’s before the 27th. I’m on call that day and don’t wanna work.

bluecheese

3/26/20 11:10pm

I fly off for my locums hospitalist gig tomorrow.

UpperCirqueUte

3/26/20 11:21pm

Where ya goin?

bluecheese

3/26/20 11:23pm

Haha, this has been my thinking. Just because something grows exponentially from

dfudge

3/26/20 11:41pm

To be consistent, there were 282,000 jobless claims last week and 3 million this week. So we will undoubtedly see 30MM

Pistol Shrimp

3/27/20 12:01am

Wow, in a couple weeks, this thing could be killing more people than AR-14s.

stlcougs

3/27/20 6:53am

People don’t want to believe and they just aren’t going to. All we can really do

Josef K

3/26/20 11:03pm

It’s beyond absurd to think that we’ll have 6k+ dying every day

Mike Honcho

3/26/20 11:21pm

Absurd? Meet Italy. Even with weeks of strict public health measures

UpperCirqueUte

3/26/20 11:31pm

They leveled off only 9 days from their quarantine

CSoul

3/26/20 11:35pm

What is the median time to death on the vent? The 25th quartile?

UpperCirqueUte

3/26/20 11:38pm

Median is 13 days from symptom onset. Time to symptoms from infection

CSoul

3/26/20 11:44pm

Looking at the paper in the Lancet and CDC report

UpperCirqueUte

3/27/20 12:12am

Then you are reading it wrong. For reference

CSoul

3/27/20 12:47am

Your extrapolations are so simplistic that it’s hard to take you seriously

Mike Honcho

3/26/20 11:37pm

Agree. So Ridiculous.

kotacoug

3/26/20 11:38pm

Their growth in deaths per day has actually fallen since their peak on 3/21. They instituted mandatory quarantine

YIsForBrigham

3/26/20 11:42pm

Even though not true peak, the 20th was within the margin of peak

CSoul

3/26/20 11:46pm

If you would look at my data you can see the bell curve and the growth

CSoul

3/26/20 11:30pm

This graph can't be right. The Netherlands is blue and the US is orange.

sah22

3/27/20 8:51am

Just think in 8 weeks it will be like millions dying everyday!

kimdaddy35

3/27/20 12:07am

And soon after that we’ll hit billions dying every day.

Pistol Shrimp

3/27/20 12:09am

Yeah it’s not going to be all good anytime soon. And the death toll in Italy

bigbossbyu

3/27/20 12:48am

You say they have been dead on, but the guy who write the Imperial College

kimdaddy35

3/27/20 1:05am

Interesting. I guess we’ll see. Many “experts” and the “best in the business”

bigbossbyu

3/27/20 6:51pm

How are there 10 thumbs up on this? The curve is not exponential into infinity.

The Old Y

3/27/20 1:31am

Because people on here just pick a side and anyone that agrees with that side

kimdaddy35

3/27/20 1:38am

You misread. I only took the curve out to 3 weeks, not infinity.

UpperCirqueUte

3/27/20 1:44am

This isn't how things work. The idea that social

The Old Y

3/27/20 1:51am

True, as long as governments have shut down everything, the curve goes down

Josef K

3/27/20 1:45am

No. It isn't. You have literally zero data that says that's true.

The Old Y

3/27/20 1:47am

No country has slowed an exponential death rate without shutting down

Josef K

3/27/20 2:22am

No amount of social engineering explains the amount of blunting

The Old Y

3/27/20 2:36am

The virus is very localized in Italy, the us, Spain, and china

Josef K

3/27/20 2:51am

Sure, but don't change the subject. The death toll would never have looked

The Old Y

3/27/20 3:00am

It depends on how big of an area you are drawing from

Josef K

3/27/20 3:08am

65 Billion Deaths by the end of July!

Jingleheimer

3/27/20 4:02am

I love the thumbs down of basic math

coolcats

3/27/20 7:42am

The basic math part is fine. The conclusions drawn using it are ridiculous

BoiseBlueCoug

3/27/20 8:20am

My son grew 3 inches in the last year. By the time he’s 50 he’s going to be 15 feet tall. It’s the application of basic

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