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Mar 27, 2020
5:46:33am
The Shazad All-American
1.1 million was the projection in the original analysis.....
IF the US chooses a policy of "quarantine anyone who is sick and tell all elderly people to stay home". They considered that to be the most behaviorally sustainable strategy, but said that they'd project 1.1 million deaths in the US if we pursued that strategy.

The original analysis projected 80K US deaths if the US pursued a strategy of "quarantine anyone who is sick, close most schools and universities and use social distancing of the ENTIRE population" (plus a couple more things I can't remember right now). They said that this could be the most effective, but of course would be the hardest to really maintain in the long run.

That he quoted the 1.1 million number in an interview specifically makes it very likely that the question assumed something about the mitigation strategy.
The Shazad
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The Shazad
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3/26/20 9:11pm

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