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Mar 27, 2020
8:30:45pm
CSoul Intervention Needed
Both country and state data are updated. Moved state data just to line graphs
Some info for those that may be confused on what the charts represent. I picked a standard starting x-axis value for each entity in the graph so you are comparing it all at the same time in the lifecycle of a country or state. You can see what the start is by hovering over the "i" icon by the name of the chart. This has become the standard way of looking at these outbreaks and recoveries. In addition, logarithmic scale on a daily basis is the best way to understand what the curve is actually doing on any of these. Too many linear graphs are passed around that are based on overall totals that just don't really tell you anything and also don't tell the story on how long or short the exponential cycle is and really just freak people out. Humans are terrible with big numbers.

A few pieces of interest from today:

1. Even with New York's big jump in deaths, LA had more per capita deaths today.
2. New Jersey is further along in the cycle than New York and will probably peak faster
3. Even though Italy had a record death day, from a percentage perspective it's still within a margin of "flat". Iran has stayed flat. Both Italy and Iran should drop in the next 5 days if they follow the pattern of China. Yes I know we can't actually trust China's totals, but the cycle seems accurate so far.
4. Spain and France should peak in the next day to two days.
5. United States and UK are still almost exactly in line as they should be in the slope. Should peak in 6-8 days.


Originally posted on Mar 27, 2020 at 8:30:45pm
Message modified by CSoul on Mar 27, 2020 at 9:05:54pm
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CSoul
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