Have a couple of epidemiologist friends. They liked this plan put out by the AEI
I'm not a scientist, but I thought it was interesting to see what peer-reviewed experts were thinking about moving from phase I, which is where we are now, to phase II, which is where we can open things up again in a measured way.
In brief, they recommend a state can move to Stage II when the following has happened:
• A sustained reduction in cases for at least
14 days,
• Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat
all patients requiring hospitalization without
resorting to crisis standards of care
• The state is able to test all people with COVID-19
symptoms, and
• The state is able to conduct active monitoring of
confirmed cases and their contacts