Sign up, and you can make all message times appear in your timezone. Sign up
Apr 1, 2020
12:25:35pm
grosven All-American
I trimmed everything I bought in the two-week trough. Earnings estimates
need to be adjusted for all valuations. Just a note, I'm sorry to talk about this now. It kind of feels stupid to talk about things like this when people are losing their jobs, a pandemic is spreading and it looks like we're in for a challenging month or longer. I'm posting because I've been quite a loud-mouth over the last few years on here regarding investing, and I'm coming in now with much more humility than ever. So, going forward, I'll make an honest effort to keep this all in mind and be more careful about what I share. Overall, I am excited for the future, but this is a pretty scary thing we're all going through, and I think I have factored in my myopic view that things will return to normal quickly over the past weeks.

I don't try and time the market, I just buy things that are trading at a discount to future cash flows. I think it not a stretch to say that many things have gone on sale to how things used to be, looking in the rear-view mirror. My original thesis for many of these companies was that things are going to get back to normal once this thing is figured out, and it will probably get figured out quickly. I did not expect things to shoot up so high so fast. So, over the past couple days, I realized some nice gains, and some stink losses and coming out about even, and a chance to be more calculated in the coming months.

In summary, I am of the opinion that market fear is going to crescendo in the coming months because things are going to look a lot worse in the short term. It's possible that I'll be wrong ... again, but I feel that markets are still pricing in more of the bull case than the bear case. I will be readjusting the watchlist and buy prices this weekend because some quick napkin analysis is giving me pause on many valuations, at least in the medium term.

For those interested, I highly recommend you read the latest memo from Howard Marks: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/which-way-now.pdf
grosven
Bio page
grosven
Joined
Aug 13, 2009
Last login
Apr 18, 2024
Total posts
13,261 (41 FO)
Messages
Author
Time

Posting on CougarBoard

In order to post, you will need to either sign up or log in.