We need to take this serious no doubt. But I worry we dismiss the positive too quickly (in a noble effort to make sure everyone's taking it seriously).

Please stay in your house, it's important that we don't overwhelm the health-care system.

But here's a dose of positivity (factually true, but admittedly from a positive bias):

• You almost definitely won't die from Covid-19. You probably won't even feel symptoms from it.
  
  1 death is sad, so I don't want to downplay that.
  
  But odds are, you won't die from Covid. Odds are you won't even get sick from Covid. 
  
  Let's take the 60% herd immunity we need to hit for this to be over. That means we're shooting for 60% of the population to get it and recover or get a vaccine.
  
  According to the Iceland study, 50% of cases are asymptomatic. Which means only 50% of cases feel any symptoms at all. If we reach that 60% threshold, that means only:
  
  30% of the population will feel any symptoms. 7/10 people will never feel any Covid symptoms. That's at least somewhat comforting.
  
  
• Right now, you probably don't have Covid-19.
  
  A low percentage of people who think they have it actually have it. To get a test in Utah, you need to be showing symptoms and have a doctor's approval. Even in that group, only 1/20 are tested positive. So 5% of those who are showing symptoms & have a doctor's note have it. (my source here is my friend who works at Intermountain Health Care and had a large meeting with the entire company this morning).
  
  
• 99% of those who died in Italy had severe pre-existing conditions. 48.5% had 3 serious pre-existing conditions
  
  Meaning, as sad as it is, many of these people would have died soon anyway. Covid-19 may have pushed them over the edge. But we know in NYC even those who were dying of cancer and were going to pass soon, if they got Covid-19 and passed away, they were counted solely as Covid deaths.
  
  If you're healthy, odds are this won't kill you.
  
  
• Including everyone, so far the death rate is estimated at 0.66%. (Source: http://Jimmer.it/GV4hpt )
  
  Including healthy and unhealthy people, of those who get it, 0.66% will die. Meaning fewer than 1/100 people who get this will die from it. And 99% of those who die from it might have died anyway from a pre-existing condition (though not all of the pre-existing conditions are serious enough that they would have died anyway, and I couldn't find a statistic talking about that. Still though, this is a positive post, so I'll be honest and truthful but my intent is to be positive).
  
  
• For everyone, the odds of dying are:  0.1%.
  
  Meaning, for you right now who doesn't have coronavirus, your chances of dying from it are 0.1%.
  
  You're more likely to die in a lot of different ways:
  • You're more likely to die on a drive to the airport than from contracting and dying from Covid-19.
  • Heck, BYU has more of a chance of winning the College Football Playoff than you have of dying from Covid-19.
  • You have a much higher chance of dying because you're fat.
  • You are more likely to be a millionaire than die from Covid-19.
  • You're more likely to get murdered than die from Covid-19.
    
    
• Even with a pre-existing condition, your odds of dying are low:
  • If you have 3 pre-existing conditions, your odds of dying are: .2%
  • If you have 2 pre-existing conditions, your odds of dying are: .15%
  • If you have 0 pre-existing conditions, your odds of dying are: .0048%
    
    
• You probably won't be hospitalized from Covid-19
  The stats I've seen say it has a 4% hospitalization rate if you are tested positive for Covid-19. It's probably much lower than that... that's only those tested positive. It's at least half that, but let's take that 4% number. 
  
  If 4% of the people who get it are hospitalized (which is too high), when we reach 60% of the population getting it, 2/100 people will go to the hospital because of it. Most of them will have pre-existing conditions, and most won't die from it.
  
  Let me put this into real terms: 2 people who have a pre-existing condition in your ward and are in their 60s will go to the hospital and recover. But that's if the 4% is correct (which it's not), and that's if we get 60% infected before we get a vaccine.
  
  
• America's getting more ready for the response, as long as we continue to flatten the curve.
  We are not ready right now for the peak of the curve, so we need it to spread more slowly.
  • But ICU beds are being added nationwide.
  • Ventilators are being manufactured everywhere.
    
  • Masks and other equipment are being manufactured by everyone, even sports apparel companies and companies who make pillows.
    
    
• There is hope for a good treatment soon.
  • A doctor found that giving plasma of recovered patients to currently extremely sick patients promising, in fact it healed 100% of those he treated with it. Too small a sample size, but again this is a positive post. Read this guy's twitter feed, he wasn't optimistic before this finding.
  • We are running tests on hydroxychloroquine. No, we don't have enough data for it to be definitive yet, but we have a truckload of anecdotal data.
    
    Do you believe Josh Powell killed his wife? In my opinion, there is more anecdotal data to prove hydroxychloroquine at least helps reduce symptoms than there is evidence that Josh Powell killed his wife. Are either definitive? No. But both are likely true.
    
    If we can prove hydroxychloroquine works, think of the ramifications! Everyone in America can start taking it within a month, and that will bridge the gap until we have a vaccine. We'll get back to work, to baseball games, to sports! Here's some promising signs:
    • The Michigan governor ruled it out as a treatment and made it illegal as a treatment to Covid (which makes sense, he wanted there to be enough for patients who needed it for other illnesses). When he saw the findings of the initial studies, he reversed his decision.
    • A doctor healed 100% of his patients using hydroxychloroquine.
    • The New York Times started to believe the treatment is promising.
    • The FDA approved it for emergency use.
    • This study talks about it being very promising.
      
      
  • This test will tell you if you've had it and recovered. They may ask for your plasma to heal others.
    
    
• Can we talk about vaccines?
  • We heard it would take at least a year for a vaccine. This expert says he can get it done in 5 months (4 months to go!).
  • This company thinks it can get a vaccine going by June.
    
    
• When will we get back to normal?
  
  It's an interesting question. Here's an angle you may not have considered.
  
  Why are we in quarantine? It's to slow the spread of Covid-19 until the hospitals have enough capacity to help everyone.
  
  If it peaks in 1.5 weeks (like everyone's predicting), then we can get back to normal in 3-5 weeks. We'd be on the downslope of the curve, which means more people will get it outside of their homes, but it won't overwhelm the health-care system. 
  
  Meaning: At its peak, the virus could overwhelm the health-care system if we don't have social distancing. But if we leave our homes after the peak, not as many will be able to get infected, and we won't worry about overwhelming the system.

Anyway guys, I admit I wrote this post with a positive bias. I agree that we should all stay home to avoid overwhelming the medical system.

But I did want to counter the negative tone I'm seeing online with at least a somewhat positive one.