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Apr 4, 2020
1:49:54pm
CSoul Truly Addicted User
I have made my predictions purely based on looking at the data, but here is my
theory now as to why it is progressing and lowering far faster than the most dire predictions. With new revelations that it may be primarily spread through aerosol means, and even more so because after a spike in deaths later positives in a population are requiring less and less hospitalization, it appears a few things may be in play.

1. If aerosols are the primary (or one of the primary) ways of this spreading, those with symptoms are FAR more likely to spread this (coughing)
2. This quickly spreads through the vulnerable/symptomatic portion of the population, maybe even multiple times higher R0 than even the high estimates now (R4+ even) and then all you have left are the asymptomatic or just not vulnerable population and they are not spreading as much through aerosol.

Now, a big note here. I am far less confident in this theory as I am the statistics / growth numbers because I'm not an epidemiologist, but I thought I would throw it out there as a possibility.
CSoul
Previous username
tsm26
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CSoul
Joined
Nov 20, 2005
Last login
Apr 25, 2024
Total posts
66,535 (13,829 FO)
Related Threads Topic: I still updated countries and states yesterday. More confirmation from Michael (CSoul, Apr 4, 2020 at 1:28pm)

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