Looks like I Italy definitely peaked as CSoul said much earlier than I expected. I can say I am very happy to see the SEIR models I created have been incorrect. Even including the possible uncounted dead in nursing homes through Italy I definitely Overestimated Italy's total dead.

For Spain, while it looks like my model is not too far off, seeing what happened in Italy I definitely think that Spain is very close (before or after) to its peak. My thoughts are that both countries will be around 50% of what I initially suggested. Assuming their is no mutation and risk of reinfection is extremely low, I believe that






Looking at Italy someone suggested that my prediction could be a lot closer than the actual report shows as they admit in their reports that the total death count is too low. I really think that if another 5-10K were dead, it would not just fly "under the radar". The death counts might be 20-25% under the true number tops in my opinion, not 60K dead as suggested in the following paper: