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Apr 4, 2020
6:44
:07
pm
jkccoug
Intervention Needed
Fantastic news. Deaths at only 1048. 3 day average daily growth down to 2.6%
At this point I feel somewhat confident in saying that we are in the neighborhood of the peak.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Apr 4, 2020 at 6:44:07pm
Message modified by jkccoug on Apr 4, 2020 at 6:44:47pm
Message modified by jkccoug on Apr 4, 2020 at 6:45:03pm
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jkccoug
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Socrates Johnson
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jkccoug
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Related Threads
Topic:
940 dead today so far. I expect 1400-1500 by day’s end, which is slower growth
(jkccoug, Apr 4, 2020 at 2:43pm)
Children:
1165 today. 3 day rolling average daily growth rate has been single digits for 3
(jkccoug, Apr 5, 2020 at 8:37pm)
Messages
Author
Time
Fantastic news. Deaths at only 1048. 3 day average daily growth down to 2.6%
jkccoug
4/4/20 6:44pm
They are 82% under the projections from last week
travelcoug
4/4/20 6:46pm
I don’t know whose projections you are referring to.
jkccoug
4/4/20 6:49pm
The ones published by Gov cuomo. You know. The official ones
travelcoug
4/4/20 6:52pm
I think the point is the predictions were ridiculous to begin with.
kotacoug
4/4/20 6:54pm
More than 1000 people are dying per day. That’s bad.
The Dude Abides
4/4/20 6:59pm
Exactly right. This is *good* news. It means our painful measures are helping.
ReyOso
4/4/20 7:02pm
It’s truly incredible that a thousand deaths with strong attempts at prevention
coolcats
4/4/20 7:03pm
We could have 10K deaths a day and some people would still say it's nothing.
ReyOso
4/4/20 7:08pm
More exaggeration... if you can’t discuss the topic without getting
kotacoug
4/4/20 7:14pm
I’m far from a doom and gloom guy and I hate the posts that
The Dude Abides
4/4/20 7:12pm
I generally agree with your post but it’s not clear what we are doing
kotacoug
4/4/20 7:16pm
If tallies are decreasing, it is because of NY which is great. But California expects to be much worse in the next two
chago04
4/4/20 7:05pm
This. The US peak is a plateau comprising of lots of individual state peaks
unctoothman
4/4/20 7:14pm
NYC is the largest and most dense city we have. We likely won’t see anything worse than New York and everyone else has
YIsForBrigham
4/4/20 7:36pm
California was inline with ny until they implemented strict measures
BYU '80
4/4/20 8:43pm
No one is going to change their minds about this. I get it.
jkccoug
4/4/20 7:01pm
We don’t know what measures were even needed. What was done was based
kotacoug
4/4/20 7:12pm
You can’t possibly know if the projections were faulty. You do not have access
jkccoug
4/4/20 7:22pm
The projections all of this were originally based on have absolutely been wrong
BYU '80
4/4/20 8:45pm
That is not something you can know. You just cant.
jkccoug
4/4/20 9:16pm
So a projection that said x number of deaths by x date
BYU '80
4/4/20 9:28pm
All projections are based on assumptions. I can project you will get hit by a
jkccoug
4/4/20 9:53pm
But in this scenario, the car is unknown. Neither of you see it. You just think
Harbinger
4/4/20 7:14pm
Or you may not have. Nor is it true that you have no idea if there was a truck
jkccoug
4/4/20 7:23pm
I guess a better way would be to say it was a four lane highway and the truck
Harbinger
4/4/20 7:30pm
Hope so
Blueto
4/4/20 6:48pm
I bet you $10 this is not the peak.
chago04
4/4/20 6:49pm
I’ll bet you a bottle of fish tank cleaner this is somewhere in the neighborhood of the peak
YIsForBrigham
4/4/20 6:52pm
We will hit new highs, yes. But we are entering the up and down era Italy
jkccoug
4/4/20 6:53pm
Peak is in about 2 weeks.
rggee
4/4/20 6:54pm
Based on projections that will likely change in a couple days like all of them
BYU '80
4/4/20 8:46pm
Not enough carnage for ya yet huh
travelcoug
4/4/20 6:54pm
No, but the statistical methodology of his prediction isn’t very sound.
chago04
4/4/20 7:01pm
Statisticians are just guessing and failing.... all of them
travelcoug
4/4/20 7:05pm
Yes, we are, but we are using scientific methods to “guess”.
chago04
4/4/20 7:06pm
No. The scientific methods says you try to disprove your theory
travelcoug
4/4/20 7:12pm
Which is why they are not statisticians. My degree is in statistics and I taught stats for several years.
chago04
4/4/20 7:17pm
I’m just looking at the change in the 3-day rolling average daily growth rate
jkccoug
4/4/20 7:07pm
The problem is that we have been seeing one high day followed by a low day for about a week now.
chago04
4/4/20 7:09pm
So single day doesn't work and 3day rolling average doesnt work? What DOES work?
rggee
4/4/20 7:10pm
Three day works as a trend but not point to point comparisons. You need more than 3 days to show a trend.
chago04
4/4/20 7:14pm
I hear you, but high day low day is just what happened in Italy a couple weeks
jkccoug
4/4/20 7:11pm
I’d love for this to be a peak, but our trend over the last week or two is still 20%
chago04
4/4/20 7:16pm
If it goes as they hoped, won't the numbers remain around this rate for some time?
John Doe
4/4/20 6:53pm
Yes.
jkccoug
4/4/20 6:54pm
Yes, the 'peak' is pretty wide in most countries. But it does start to come down
rggee
4/4/20 6:55pm
So is this a sign that flattening the curve may be working?
John Doe
4/4/20 6:57pm
Who knows, it's just a sign that we are on our way out of this outbreak.
rggee
4/4/20 6:58pm
With the vast majority of the cases being treated now being 10-14 days old
travelcoug
4/4/20 6:56pm
My thought is that as people start coming out of isolation, some of them will now be susceptible and catch it.
John Doe
4/4/20 7:00pm
We wont be coming out of isolation for a month or so I'd wager
rggee
4/4/20 7:01pm
Another month? Most folks can't afford to do that.
John Doe
4/4/20 7:05pm
I agree. Nevertheless, it's clear that's the plan.
ReyOso
4/4/20 7:19pm
This is why the 100% suscess rate with hydroxychloriquin In keeping people out
travelcoug
4/4/20 7:07pm
I thought the University of Washington model was the optimistic one
annapcoug
4/4/20 6:58pm
And they projected over 1340 deaths today
rggee
4/4/20 7:00pm
You can’t look at one day totals. It doesn’t work like that.
chago04
4/4/20 7:02pm
Which is what happened yesterday, roughly. It’s not like they were way off.
jkccoug
4/4/20 7:05pm
Which is what we ended up with. OP jumped the gun
Memmo
4/4/20 7:46pm
They did move some deaths/dates around. Not sure which goes where just yet
jkccoug
4/4/20 8:16pm
I’m seeing the US at 1,331. I think that’s a record for any country, on any day.
chilango
4/4/20 10:00pm
They moved 300ish from yesterday to today. It was 1328 yesterday 1045 today
jkccoug
4/4/20 10:18pm
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