They're running far ahead of projections. The epidemic must have been more entrenched than the modelers thought when they put it together. Other states are looking pretty accurate.

The other big concern I have is that this assumes we are able to continue these social distancing measures through the summer, but it's hard to imagine that there won't be intense pressure to ease up at some point. Our economy will be in full collapse well before August if we continue with a total lockdown. How are we going to keep from seeing case numbers shoot up again?