OK, I admit it, I'm not a numbers guy, but for those that are, how are this...

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Apr 5, 2020
10:58:13pm

So it goes... All-American

OK, I admit it, I'm not a numbers guy, but for those that are, how are this...

guys numbers? Seems like there are a lot of smart numbers guys that post here, so I'm very curious...

Let’s estimate the total # of people in the US who have been infected by #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 as of Apr 4, and the number of US fatalities that will result from these infections. To avoid testing coverage uncertainty, we will use fatality data, rather than positive test data. (1/9)
— David R. Liu (@davidrliu) April 5, 2020

https://twitter.com/davidrliu/status/1246794506177056768

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So it goes...

Previous username: Blue Morg
Bio page: So it goes...
Joined: Aug 21, 2010
Last login: Apr 24, 2024
Total posts: 24,244 (2,091 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

OK, I admit it, I'm not a numbers guy, but for those that are, how are this...

4/5/20 10:58pm

Nobody knows the true IFR. Without that all these theories are just a guess.

777

4/5/20 11:02pm

This ^^^^. This guy is using 1% IFR...which is still a wild estimate

cougXor

4/5/20 11:14pm

RE: This ^^^^. This guy is using 1% IFR...which is still a wild estimate

bythenumbers

4/6/20 8:54am

Doubling every 5 days after stay at home orders seems high, but just guessing.

Coach's Dad

4/5/20 11:09pm

Calculations are fine but he is assuming at every step

Tygger

4/5/20 11:10pm

Yup, working backwards from deaths is just a reasonable guess until...

Sumguy

4/5/20 11:31pm

That's what ALL early models do. Because we don't know the facts until it's over

flyzag

4/6/20 8:52am

I’d call it a first order model

webster242

4/5/20 11:28pm

As Csoul and other have stated exponential growth doesn’t maintain its growth.

johnnybyu

4/5/20 11:36pm

What is actually happening does not reflect what his model is showing.

BYUCLA

4/5/20 11:50pm

His worst assumption: doubling time is 5 days from March 12th on.

BYUCLA

4/6/20 12:08am

Yep it s a terrible model like so many of the early models. Grateful for doctor

johnnybyu

4/6/20 12:12am

Here’s what the actual original estimate says

Sumguy

4/6/20 9:08am

The doubling time from 3/12 forward was from people infected previously

Sumguy

4/6/20 12:41am

I understand that, but here why his doubling time is wrong.

BYUCLA

4/6/20 8:49am

It’s not like he didn’t come right out and change the doubling time after 3/12

Sumguy

4/6/20 8:58am

He didn’t address the doubling time problem at all

BYUCLA

4/6/20 9:08am

Did you miss the part where he doubled the doubling time after 3/12?

Sumguy

4/6/20 9:42am

I suggest you read my post again, as you are not understanding

BYUCLA

4/6/20 9:55am

"This message has been modified"

Sumguy

4/6/20 10:28am

I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the model

Sumguy

4/6/20 12:37am

This refusal to admit fault in the models is laughably insecure. They weren't

CSoul

4/6/20 6:56am

Don’t be absurd

Sumguy

4/6/20 8:37am

That is absurd.

HighHorse

4/6/20 8:44am

One key point you're missing

bythenumbers

4/6/20 7:10am

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