I am very optimistic in the long run (12-18 months minimum) that we will be able to return to a sense of normalcy. However, in the short run, we are in for a lot of hurt.

Two of the following three things need to happen before we are able to get back a realistic semblance of life rather than the lock down we are under:

1. Vaccine development
2. A treatment for the virus that is effective
3. Antibody testing that is reliable (meaning low false negative rates) showing who has been exposed to the virus and has immunity

At a minimum, if we are able to get only reliable antibody testing, which should be able to come on line the fastest, that would go a long way to improving the current situation and allow more targeted and effective quarantines. However, until we accomplish two of these three things, I just do not see how life can return to what it was for all of us less than two months ago.

We are all grateful that the growth trajectory in the number of deaths, hospitalizations, and positively identified cases is either plateauing or beginning to decrease in many areas. It seems that the measures put in place may have worked. But all of that will be for naught if/when we relax the current restrictions without a vaccine, a safe and effective treatment, and reliable antibody testing.

As much as I hate to say this, I believe that there will not be an MLB season this year, college football will be cancelled, basketball (and all other fall/winter sports) will not be played, NFL stadiums will be empty (without games being played either), colleges will likely have virtual learning this coming fall, and our ability to eat out, worship together, and be entertained at concerts, etc. will not happen until we figure this out. I don't want to sound like chicken little. However, when my neighborhood dog park is closed and they have locked outhouses I have come to rely on during my morning runs because they are afraid of disease spread, do you really think that there will be stadiums full of fans, classes full of students, etc until we have a vaccine, treatment, or antibody testing? There is no way.

This can all change if we have a paradigm shift as a society, but based upon the road we have taken so far, such a big shift is unlikely.

Believe me, I want this to change. I am one of the fortunate ones who still has a job. The hospital where I work is very quiet. My typical census is down a lot because all of the "non-essential" operations and clinics are on hold as we await the surge of COVID-19 patients which may or may not materialize as the models we based our planning on seem to be faulty. I am personally seeing two patients who are COVID-19 positive, both in their 40s, and both likely to die. But we are not overwhelmed like other areas have been, fortunately.

I am sickened by the economic devastation that has taken place as a result of this. The toll this is going to take (and has already taken) on individuals who have been economically impacted is tremendous. I am not sure that what we have done with our blanket isolation is necessarily the right thing because we are making decisions based upon so little data. But, I do not fault the health experts or politicians who are listening to them for the strategies they have implemented. I sincerely believe that they are trying to do what is in the best interest of the most number of people given the information they have. I don't envy their position.

The number of positive cases, even the number of deaths from COVID-19 that have been reported are difficult to interpret. What we really need to know, and will not know for some time, is the number of people who actually have the disease and have had asymptomatic or mild cases (in other words, the disease prevalence). Once we understand this better, we will be better able to realize just how big of a threat this virus is.

Years from now, when we do have data and are able to look back on this period of time and see where we got things right and wrong, it will be a humbling experience and something I hope we can learn from. Living through it now, however, sucks. All the way around. Full stop.