That not what the article said. The article, of course, has now been scrubbed from the internet once UCSF realized
people were pushing it as a USCF sanctioned event. It wasn't. Turns out so much of it was taken out of context and extrapolated. But it was widely shared and accepted. Including by many here on CB. Because "experts" were involved.
Conclusions from the article: 40-70% of Americans would get it no matter what. >1.5million Americans would die. Social distancing would simply slow it down. 1.5million would still die no matter what.