We will have other tools besides total lockdown

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Apr 10, 2020
12:02:00pm

CallingDingo Starter

We will have other tools besides total lockdown

We will gain treatment and therapeutic options. We will increase testing capacity and reliability. We will be able to trace and quarantine better. The public will practice distancing without shelter-in-place. Yes, there will likely be other waves, but they won’t be as severe.

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CallingDingo

Bio page: CallingDingo
Joined: Oct 8, 2014
Last login: Mar 22, 2024
Total posts: 1,629 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

That article about the UCSF "expert" panel people peddled on here a few weeks ago predicted 1.5 million US deaths from

YIsForBrigham Poo Poo

4/10/20 11:16am

What were the underlying assumptions made then regarding mitigation and have those assumptions materialized

Indy Coug

4/10/20 11:18am

You know predictions change when variables change, right?

SUAVO

4/10/20 11:21am

Meant for OP

SUAVO

4/10/20 11:21am

That not what the article said. The article, of course, has now been scrubbed from the internet once UCSF realized

4/10/20 11:24am

So, they said 1.5 million would die no matter what we did?

SUAVO

4/10/20 11:29am

Yes

4/10/20 11:32am

No

The Shazad

4/10/20 11:45am

Not sure. They said 40-70% of Americans would get it no matter what and that a 1% mortality rate would hold

4/10/20 11:21am

IMO, the models aren't the problem here, it's the assumptions which have been used. But let's be honest

Indy Coug

4/10/20 11:25am

There’s no reason to believe the mortality rate is much less than 1%. And

Jay Rick

4/10/20 11:49am

Alright. I'll put you down for the "1.5million Americans will die" prediction

4/10/20 11:51am

Fair enough, even though that’s not really what a said. But I guess

Jay Rick

4/10/20 11:54am

I'll say it's still a high possibility, yes.

ReyOso

4/10/20 11:29am

^this

flyzag

4/10/20 11:45am

Keep the economy on total lockdown for 18 months?

RexIdaCoug

4/10/20 11:56am

I think this has to be the answer. Allowing this thing to infect substantial %

Jay Rick

4/10/20 12:08pm

(Meant for dingo below)

Jay Rick

4/10/20 12:08pm

I agree, although I'm not entirely optimistic yet.

ReyOso

4/10/20 12:16pm

We will have other tools besides total lockdown

CallingDingo

4/10/20 12:02pm

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