If BYU had won that game and the rest of the season played out the same through the end of the WAC championship game, BYU would have played an undefeated Florida State team for the NC. BYU barely got by Kansas State, who was a very good team in their own right, but BYU would have been big underdogs against FSU. I would give BYU maybe a 10% chance to beat FSU then. Sure, a fighter's chance, but a very probable loss.