Being good always comes first. 2017 was an easy schedule overall and we still got hammered because we weren’t good. However, when we are actually good why settle for 9-4 or 8-5 when the same caliber of team could finish 11-2. Scheduling should be strategic which has two parts:
Part 1 is to limit P5s to 2-3 per year.
Part 2 is we need to schedule bad programs. I know that makes our fanbase uncomfortable. But it has been a huge part of BYU’s historic success.
What is a bad team? It is a FBS program who wins 5 games or less or a FCS team.
Over the last 40 years the magic number has been 6.
When BYU plays 6 games against bad teams and wins them all they finished ranked. It’s happened 10 times in the last 40 years (caveat the 2011 team finished ranked only in the coaches poll). Since 1980, BYU has finished ranked in 12 of the 20 seasons they have played 6 or more bad teams including some of our favorites like 1984 (7-0), 1996 (7-0), 2001 (8-0), and 2009 (6-0). BYU has finished ranked in only 4 out of the 20 seasons where they played 5 or fewer bad teams
Indy record vs bad teams:
2011- 7-0 ranked in coaches poll
2012- 5-1
2013- 2-2
2014- 5-0
2015- 3-1
2016- 6-1
2017- 4-2
2018- 4-0
2019- 2-1
4 out of 9 seasons BYU has played at least 6 bad teams. Only one went undefeated and thus was recognized in a major poll.
This is yet another reason to schedule only 2-3 P5s on the schedule. They are less likely to be bad. About 30% of P5s finish with 5 wins or fewer in a given year. Over 40% of FBS non P5 teams finish with 5 wins or less in a given year. Given BYU’s track record it makes more sense to schedule more non P5s.
Sure we can schedule some historically bad teams and they turn out to be actually good like Oregon St and San Jose St in 2012. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t schedule strategically.
A standard schedule should be as follows:
Rival- Utah
Secondary Rivals- Utah St and Boise St
A non Utah Pac 12 team
A team from the other P5s
A FCS team
6 hot garbage FBS such as New Mexico, New Mexico St, UConn, UMass, Eastern Michigan, UNLV,
UTEP, Rice, Tulane, etc.
Scheduling this way assures us of bowl games almost every year, allows us to win 10 or more games and finish ranked when we are good. And it allows us to truly be tested if we are elite.