So, if the AP rankings are used now to fill out the bowls, it would go something like this:

Clemson vs Georgia
Alabama vs Notre Dame

To replace the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl auto bids:
Big Ten auto bid: #5 Ohio State
PAC-12 auto bid: #13 Oregon
Big 12 auto bid: #6 Oklahoma State
SEC auto bid: #7 Texas A&M

The Orange Bowl's auto bids:
ACC: #11 Miami
Big Ten/SEC/ND: #8 Penn State

That leaves the G5 auto bid and one at-large:
#9 Cincinnati
#10 Florida

BYU is the highest ranked team not included in the NY6. If they can get in and stay in the Top 10 by the end of the year, there's a good chance they get that one at-large spot. Right now, in the rankings, our biggest competitors are #10 Florida, #14 UNC, #15 Wisconsin and #18 Michigan.

I don't consider #16 SMU competition because either they or UC will drop out. I don't consider Iowa State competition because ISU or OSU is losing that battle this weekend and the loser stays behind us.

If we're in the top 10, that would leave two spots for teams outside of the top 12 to be included before it impacts that at-large bid. I'm assuming it will the G5 and PAC-12 auto bids. If the ACC auto bid drops out too, then we need to look at at least #9 or higher to stay in the race.