Chances are pretty good, actually, that we net 3 spots higher and end up at 11 even with just a SDSU win. There was a good CB post on this yesterday. We can strengthen our resume with 1-2 wins against teams not named Oregon without making it harder on ourselves by beating Oregon and having them drop out of the top 12, taking one spot we need open.
Basically we don’t need an Oregon game to get in. I think you just have a more pessimistic perspective than me and that is the basis of us seeing things differently. I’m also assuming we would get in at 11.
You could be right, though, that we need a win against a team like Oregon to get in given the CFP rankings. We will see.