The top 3 with the best chances to win are widely considered to be Mantz, Grivalja at NAU, and Kiptoo at Iowa State.
Mantz is running well and isn’t running indoor nationals.
Grivalja ran mediocre at his last race after a break. He may have some nagging injuries and may not race in top form. I haven’t seen any insider info there, but it is weird that a few teammates dropped him at his last race.
Kiptoo is running really well and is lots of people’s favorite, but he is also running the 5k at indoor nationals just three days before XC nationals. He’ll still be near the top in XC, but that has to hurt him just a bit.