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Mar 3, 2021
3:35:35pm
Gustav All-American
Unappetizing thoughts from Mandel on BYU team experience level
Is this a year in which to pay less heed to Bill Connelly’s returning production stat? Given that everyone gets a free year doesn’t that inflate the percentage? As a BYU fan whose team ranks dead last in that metric and is dealing with the departure of Zach Wilson to the NFL, and with seven Power 5 opponents and Boise State on the docket, how worried should I be? — Nicolas C.

Pretty darn worried, I’m afraid.

I’m fascinated to see the effect of all these seniors returning. AP writer Ralph Russo did the dirty work and determined there are more than 1,000 so-called super seniors currently on FBS rosters, with Illinois’ 17 leading the way among Power 5 schools. There are 26 teams returning at least 80 percent of their production, which, per Connelly’s formula, is up from nine this time a year ago.

My hunch is the effect will look something like this: The handful of elite programs accustomed to reloading every year — Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State — will feel no effect either way. The next-level-down teams high in those rankings, such as Miami (No. 3), Iowa State (No. 4), Utah (No. 8) and Oregon (No. 9), will largely cancel out each other. In a normal year, UCLA (No. 2) would be set up perfectly for a big jump, a la Northwestern last year (which was No. 1 in these rankings last year), but as it is, the Bruins are just one of eight Pac-12 teams above that 80 percent threshold. There will still be some of those breakout teams, but their advantage might be a bit muted.

But who I really wouldn’t want to be are teams such as Tennessee (No. 117), Notre Dame (No. 123), South Carolina (No. 124), Northwestern (No. 126) or, yes, BYU (No. 127). Inexperienced teams have it tough in any year, but the effect could be especially pronounced this year when so many of your competitors are extremely experienced. In fact, the Cougars, at 31 percent, have to play three teams, Washington State, Utah and Arizona State, that return at least 84 percent.

As Nicole Auerbach wrote about BYU this week, the good news is the Cougars managed to play a full season in 2020 and made it a memorable one. As a result, though, their seniors had less incentive to use the free year than those at some of the Pac-12 schools that played just four games. BYU, therefore, is my leading contender to be this year’s 2020 LSU (minus Bo Pelini).


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Originally posted on Mar 3, 2021 at 3:35:35pm
Message modified by Gustav on Mar 3, 2021 at 3:36:04pm
Gustav
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