Let's play this out

Option 1: Go for 3 - odds of winning 33+%

With a decent look like Michigan had, let's estimate a 33% chance of hitting it for the win. The quick shot also leads to higher probability for a tipin, but let's ignore that for simplicity

Option 2: Go for 2 and OT - odds of winning 25%

Let's say he drives for a contest 2 pt shot. BEST case is a 50% chance, most likely 45-50%. Excluding any time left for the other team to score, you'd then have a ~50% shot of winning in overtime. Let's generously say 50% chance to OT times 50% chance of winning in OT.

Odds actually say take the 3 for the win in most cases.