Sign up, and you can make all message times appear in your timezone. Sign up
Apr 5, 2021
10:50:47am
krindorr Truly Addicted User
Compared to expected wins (based on seeding), we're ... not good
I'm sure there are teams that are worse (particularly those with repeated high seeds), but we're not great in the tourney.

I went through each tourney for the last 35 years and marked out how far each seed advanced, and then used that to create a prediction of how many games each seed "should" win.

1 seed - 3.35 games
2 seed - 2.37 games
3 seed - 1.86 games
4 seed - 1.53 games
5 seed - 1.11 games
6 seed - 1.07 games
7 seed - 0.91 games
8 seed - 0.70 games
9 seed - 0.60 games
10 seed - 0.62 games
11 seed - 0.61 games
12 seed - 0.51 games
13 seed - 0.25 games
14 seed - 0.16 games
15 seed - 0.06 games
16 seed - <0.01 games

Based on this (and First 4 games, where I assumed a 50/50 shot either team wins and then moves forward with the above metrics for their seed), BYU since 2004 would be expected to have won 8.05 NCAA tournament games, but have only won 5.

3 extra wins, almost regardless of how they are distributed, would be enough to change the narrative a ton.
krindorr
Bio page
krindorr
Joined
Oct 5, 2020
Last login
Mar 29, 2024
Total posts
17,689 (106 FO)
Messages
Author
Time

Posting on CougarBoard

In order to post, you will need to either sign up or log in.