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Jun 10, 2021
3:43:47pm
krindorr 3rd String
CFP Expansion Winners and Losers

Winner - The AAC: This system creates a near de factor P6.  80+% of the time, the 6 conference champs are going to come from SEC, Big 10, ACC, Big12, PAC12, and AAC. Once in a great while (largely due to conference championship game upsets) one of the traditional P5 will miss out.  The AAC will miss out more than those, but the biggest change here is elevating that conference closer to the P5 and further from the G5.


Loser - Independents:  With increased playoff access for conference champs and with first round byes reserved for conference champions, being an Independent has never been as untenable.  Expect to see BYU find a new home and even Notre Dame is likely to join a major conference.  For Army, Liberty, etc this is probably less of an issue since they don't field even conference championship level teams


Winner - The ACC:  To quote from above "even Notre Dame is likely to join a major conference".  That means the ACC, so they're adding another top team.


Loser - The PAC12:  Some traditional power conference is eventually going to have the ignominy of having their champ left out.  Given the current lower level of play in the PAC12 and the general parity in that conference, best bet is for the PAC12 to be the one to have this happen.


Winner - The PAC12:  That said, at least the PAC12 will get representation in the playoff, which hasn't happened for a while.  This situation might put them closer to the AAC than to the SEC though.


Winner - The SEC:  No limit on # of teams from a conference means that the SEC can get a heavy representation.  For 2020, this would have had 4 SEC teams


Loser - Divisions:  The AAC already got rid of theirs and set up the Conference Championship game between the top 2 teams.  Big 12 did the same thing.  Expect more conferences to follow suit.  The last thing a conference like the Mountain West wants is for a team like Boise to be in line to be the top G5 champ and then lose the conf championship to a team from a weaker division.  With the increased imnportance of conference championships, I'd imagine an increased willingness to match the top 2 conference teams instead of arbitrarily dividing into divisions.


Unknown - Conference Expansion/Contraction:  On the one hand, it's easy to consider that this allows more mobility.  If Houston or UCF or some team is constantly winning and knocking off teams from traditional power schools, it seems they could get an invite to a bigger stage.  But there's also the possibility that conferences won't want to go bigger and reduce access for the current teams


 

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Originally posted on Jun 10, 2021 at 3:43:47pm
Message modified by krindorr on Jun 10, 2021 at 4:09:51pm
krindorr
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krindorr
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