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Jun 13, 2021
1:34:31pm
krindorr 3rd String
Going G5->P5 isn't as easy as we seem to think; not sure why we play the victim

Warning: Long data-driven post coming. The TL;DR of it is that we do our team a bit of a disservice when we think BYU is being treated unfairly by not getting into a P5. Instead of taking a victim mentality, let's look at what other teams have had to do to get into a P5 and try to match up to those standards.


Like I get that a lot of it has to do with historical alignments, who ends up in a P5, and that BYU is stronger than Vanderbilt or Rutgers or whoever. But going from a G5 to a P5 is INSANELY difficult, and BYU simply hasn't reached the standard to do so yet. We can complain all we want, but we need to be better on the field.


UTAH: In the 8 seasons before Utah joined the PAC12,
they won 78.2% of their games,
including 73.9% against AQ conferences
and 80% against non-AQ and
finished in the top 5 twice.


TCU: In their 7 MWC seasons before going to the Big 12, TCU did even better,
winning 85.6% of their games,
including 80% against AQ opponents
and 87% against non-AQ
and finished in the Top 10 four times.

BYU (from MWC era): In their 7* MWC seasons before Indy, BYU
won 69.3% of their games,
including 45% against AQ opponents
and 76.5% against non-AQ
and with 0 top 10 finishes (although 3 in the top 15).


Over the last decade as an independent BYU has
won 60% of their games
including 39.5% against P5
and 71.4% against G5
with one #11 finish


Definitely good, but also not at the same level as Utah and TCU before they moved up. And before we talk about the tougher schedule, it's worth noting that BYU has 17 P5 victories over the last 10 years.... the exact same number of (AQ) wins that Utah had in an only 8 year span before going PAC12. The only difference is that Utah did that in 23 games, losing only 6. BYU has done it in 43 opportunities, losing 26.  BYU still isn't winning against P5 opponents as often as Utah or TCU were, despite having MANY more opportunities.


Bottom Line:  If we want a P5 invite, we simply have to play better.  Instead of moaning and complaining, let's realize what needs to be done and to hold the team accountable to that level.  This last year was a great start, now we need to follow it up.


 


*chose 7 since it was the smaller timeframe of TCU and Utah's success.  BYU would have looked better if I used a 4 year window, but that's not exactly an apples to apples comparison.  I also would have happily used a longer timeframe for BYU, but going back further just hurts the numbers for BYU.

This message has been modified
Originally posted on Jun 13, 2021 at 1:34:31pm
Message modified by krindorr on Jun 13, 2021 at 3:40:20pm
krindorr
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krindorr
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