If you really break down each matchup to coaching and player talent, and remove

Jun 14, 2021
1:42:38am

BigBrotherUte Playmaker

team names, it's no longer an anomaly.
If you want to break it down by opponent and material factors, the data says that it would be an anomaly for BYU to beat Utah.

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BigBrotherUte

Previous username: CougarBran
New username: UtahRising
Bio page: BigBrotherUte
Joined: Oct 11, 2016
Last login: Dec 27, 2021
Total posts: 0 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Independence has boosted P5 losses, but not really P5 wins

krindorr

6/13/21 2:20pm

All P5 games are not created equal. Any info on the relative strength of those

kudzucoug

6/13/21 2:22pm

Not yet; I did a full breakdown of it for the independence era

krindorr

6/13/21 2:26pm

Attached Data

krindorr

6/13/21 2:35pm

that's very interesting and it suggests that if BYU was in a P5 conference

run26

6/13/21 2:23pm

I think recruiting would be better in a P5 conference so we’d be better than 500

IntelCougar

6/13/21 2:27pm

Not at first, but after some improvement/recruiting, 100% agree

krindorr

6/13/21 2:27pm

I’d say win 5.5/10ish on average. But that isn’t bad at all.

Turnpike Lane

6/13/21 2:34pm

This is about where I peg them also

krindorr

6/13/21 2:36pm

I mean... Yes. This is the reality

Hotlanta

6/13/21 8:19pm

No it doesn't, recruiting would completely change. Take a look at Utah.

bluescholar

6/13/21 9:01pm

Take out Utah and the numbers look completely different.

shoganai

6/13/21 2:29pm

Why would you take out Utah? They are a P5…can’t pick and choose stats.

Graystation

6/13/21 2:31pm

Never said you should. Just pointing out their impact.

shoganai

6/13/21 2:33pm

That makes no sense though…the entire post was about P5 wins/losses.

Graystation

6/13/21 2:34pm

I often find it interesting when statistics are disproportionately impacted by

shoganai

6/13/21 2:47pm

Ha! I really like most of your posts. Just found this one odd.

Graystation

6/13/21 2:49pm

Here is why Shoganai's post is interesting (Warning: Nerd Alert)

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/13/21 3:57pm

Our losing record against P5s can be entirely accounted for by the Utah game.

shoganai

6/13/21 4:02pm

I totally agree. We continue to lay eggs against Utah. There is something anomalous about the last 10 yea against Utah

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/13/21 4:21pm

Something, something…remove relevant data to make BYU football look better.

Graystation

6/13/21 4:39pm

Something, something, doesn’t understand how to interpret data

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/13/21 4:51pm

This is a great point. Nuance matters.

here's to hoping

6/13/21 5:18pm

The problem in your analysis is that you're treating Utah like it's the same

BigBrotherUte

6/14/21 1:35am

I agree it's worth looking, but every data set will have anomalies

krindorr

6/13/21 8:19pm

What the data says is that it is statistically very unlikely that Utah has won this many games in a row

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/13/21 8:30pm

Oh, I agree that it's very unlikely that we lose that many in a row

krindorr

6/13/21 8:48pm

<< Deleted >>

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/13/21 9:20pm

If you really break down each matchup to coaching and player talent, and remove

BigBrotherUte

6/14/21 1:42am

When I got a Masters Degree in Statistics at the University of Utah they never taught me such amazing concepts like that

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/14/21 4:52am

When did I say you can't statistically compare them?

BigBrotherUte

6/14/21 5:00pm

If you would like to discuss the statistics that were presented, I'm happy to do that

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/14/21 5:37pm

In any given game it's unlikely that BYU beats Utah; but the repeated losses...?

krindorr

6/14/21 6:59am

Zzzzzzz.

DrJazzy

6/13/21 5:42pm

Great point. Also, if you magically add 391 P5 wins, #s are different as well.

Linescratcher

6/13/21 2:34pm

RE: Great point. Also, if you magically add 391 P5 wins, #s are different as

here's to hoping

6/13/21 5:18pm

GK’s post was insightful. Shoganai’s was cherry picking

Linescratcher

6/13/21 5:55pm

It would probably be appropriate to not count 2020 in the independence averages

shoganai

6/13/21 2:53pm

That's fair; can't believe I didn't do that - my fault

krindorr

6/13/21 3:34pm

Important to remember our team was better the decade before

kimdaddy35

6/13/21 4:20pm

I haven't seen any strong arguments for independence

krindorr

6/13/21 4:31pm

What if the AAC doesn't want BYU? You act like BYU could take it whenever they

byusage

6/13/21 4:43pm

I'd imagine football only

krindorr

6/13/21 5:15pm

Our long term win% vs P5s is just over 40%. Independence is in line with that rate.

Indy Coug

6/13/21 4:33pm

I love posts like this that show actual facts. Kudos!

MrClark

6/13/21 7:32pm

You’re comparing independence against a situation that used to exist and cannot

gwalker

6/13/21 7:38pm

Recruiting dropped drastically when we left the MWC

krindorr

6/13/21 8:12pm

So, we're still saying recruiting tanked? How come it never showed on the field?

bluescholar

6/13/21 9:06pm

....but it has shown on field - BYU was better in the 2000s than in the 2010s

krindorr

6/13/21 9:52pm

Despite TH's assertions that BYU wants to play at the highest level possible and

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