are more likely to win this series in 5 games than the Clippers are to win it in 7. Fivethirtyeight has the Jazz at a 72% chance of winning the series using their player-based rating system, and a 77% chance of winning the series using their purely ELO-based system.

And when looking at the "most likely outcomes" (using their player-based system), the most likely outcomes for this series is:

1. Jazz in 7 (28% chance)
2. Jazz in 6 (22% chance)
3. Jazz in 5 (22% chance)

Then there is a big drop-off to the Clippers chances:

4. Clippers in 6 (14%)
5. Clippers in 7 (14%)

Why do they like the Jazz's odds so much? Because they are up 2-1 with 2 games left at home. They have both teams equally rated, but homecourt advantage is swaying things the Jazz's direction.


In fact, if you chalk up tonight's game as a loss, then the most likely outcomes in order are:

1. Jazz in 7 (35%)
2. Jazz in 6 (26%)
3. Clippers in 6 (22%)
4. Clippers in 7 (17%)

So for those saying tonight is a "must win" they are overstating things a bit. I think tonight is a must-win for the Clippers as a loss tonight gives Utah >90% chance of winning the series. But a Jazz loss and they are still the favorites to win the series (though game 5 becomes pretty close to a must-win for them at that point).