Disagree. An 11-1 Independent BYU is almost certainly in.
The question is whether hoping for 11-1 as an Independent trumps potentially getting in as a 10-2 conference champion in the AAC. With front loaded schedules and no time to grow within a season, there is little room for error as an Independent. In a conference BYU could potentially drop a game or two early, then settle in, go on a run, and still qualify for the CFP.