and Iowa State to the Big 10 (both are AAU schools). Then it's a toss up after that. OSU, K-State, and Texas Tech could go to the PAC 12 - would BYU or Baylor be the 4th team in that scenario?
Baylor could go to the ACC if ND says no. The ACC would love access to Texas recruiting, it has other private schools, and it would welcome the national champions in basketball.
TCU is the most likely to get left out, followed by Baylor. I think a 16-team AAC with TCU, BYU, and Baylor could be a decent backup plan for BYU.
Everything has pointed to 16 team conferences for a while now. Conferences will want to solidify themselves as much as possible.