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Jul 24, 2021
9:50:51am
LEDSFW All-American
I have not seen his article, but he's 100% right and I've been posting the...
...exact same things since this news broke. Here is my post with similar reasons from FB. Warning - its longer than a pop-up book so if you chose not to read it, no problem, but in a world where BOYSENBERRY STATE STUDENTS take tests in emoji language I would hope serious BYU students were academically capable of reading an argument/debate of 1200 words.

1) The PAC really does not want to move further east for members not in the same class as themselves. The PAC is strongly tied by academics. Utah probably would not have made the cut without it's very good Medical School. Colorado may as well be Oregon East. The only other two universities that fit the overall athletic and academic profile within the current footprint are BYU and SDSU. Boysenberry State lovers are sooooooo far off on this.

2) The B1G would NOT add more mid-section programs with non-existent media value. If the B1G expanded it might elevate another major AAU-Land Grant University in a populated area to the South, but it would not weaken its football presence with a Kansas, would not add KSU or ISU and Texas Tech is not in the same Academic league either. Baylor and TCI are still coming in with a lot of historic faith or size value and small stadiums. The SEC is not likely to move to 20 unless it raids ACC Teams. The ACC may be where the B1G expands, but this is all just musical chairs. This all leaves EIGHT POWER PROGRAMS out there in mid-America nobody is going to want. So,...

3) They really MUST stay together and that was very likely the reality they all knew when they gathered to chat two days ago. Now in that environment,...

4) They not only must stay together, they must do it with a huge chip on their shoulder. They and their fan bases have been disrespected. But they are on the POWER PROGRAM BUS even if sitting at the rear of it and thy have to not only act like they belong, they have to see the new opportunity ahead of them. They have to say we don't need Oklahoma and Texas, or become they end up as the MWC East, with a $5m/year TV contract and relegation to a de facto 2nd tier G-6 status. That is the handwriting on the wall unless...

5) They expand and replace OU and TEXAS intelligently and they cannot wait around to do it either. But they must also try and maintain some of the things lost, that can be replaced. Fan bases.

6) You add probably 4 teams and you replace those rabid OU and TEXAS fan bases with high energy. Venues are critical examples of those fan basis. In that regard, BYU tops that list and Central Florida comes in #2. Both have large stadiums and are destination cities (Skiing in Utah and Disney-world, Florida). Both come with large stadiums. BYU's LES would be #1 in the conference at nearly 64,000 and UCF has a choice of stadiums including the Citrus Bowl 15 miles from campus that seats slightly more if necessary. BYU (the only national program out there) is the easy #1 choice. It is a national draw and with UCF is in the center of a massive state. In the 1980's Florida was simply UFL, Miami and FSU. This is 40 years down the road. Florida's pop has doubled and its CFB fans became much more heavily fractured since then. UCF comes with a similarly rabid local fan-base and is part of a fantastic recruiting footprint.

7) Picking two more teams gets more difficult. I think the metric that leads there is potential, and that means centers of population and influence in a region because every other program will be a more heavily shared and competing fan base. Houston makes the most sense because its huge (6 million regional peeps) and comes with long time rivalries with Baylor that with TCU and Texas Tech might object to its inclusion. But it makes the most economic sense and if the choice is becoming an eastern arm of the MWC or remaining P5, Houston is in. That means adding one last team,...

8) Pick the biggest market, least competition and most growth, and make it another destination city. You get a third of a huge Front Range market with Colorado State, new stadium, academics and great fan base. You get the Blues and great BBQ with Memphis, but the academics are Boysenberry State cringe worthy and its really not relevant in SEC Country. My personal choice would be either UNLV (Vegas Baby), over 3 million people and with a magnificent new stadium). Or, SDSU with a new on-campus stadium and 6 million locals just waiting for a step up from the MWC. Cincinnati is another potential draw but it is located in te most heavily fractured state dominated by Ohio State and numerous MAC programs. It probably makes a lot of financial/NIL sense because of the many fortune 500 companies that headquarter there (BYU is similarly situated in the Wasatch-Hi-Tech front). So picking #4 is really tough. Finally,...

9) Then there is the possibility of moving to add six, and that means you could add Cincinnati, UNLV and SDSU. That 14 would be a market that both FOX and ESPN would compete over. and this last line is what matters. In the end, the eight current leftovers are getting around $30m / year while OU and TEXAS were getting close to $45m. What changes is that the remaining 8 were not worth $20m year on their own. But adding 4-6 key programs probably does maintain most of that and with enlarged markets and footprint, it makes advertising sales nationally much easier.

10) The programs mentioned would mean eyeballs and excitement in cities that matter and bring media capital. In the end none of these programs will be able to command $30m/year each. But getting $20-25m/year is a strong possibility and that is the reality they must accept. $20-25m/year is still P5 money and significantly better than MWC, CUSA MAC or AAC money. THAT is reality my friend.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Jul 24, 2021 at 9:50:51am
Message modified by LEDSFW on Jul 24, 2021 at 9:52:41am
Message modified by LEDSFW on Jul 24, 2021 at 10:17:58am
Message modified by LEDSFW on Jul 24, 2021 at 10:41:25am
LEDSFW
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LEDSFW
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