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Jul 26, 2021
1:31:57pm
BlueSteel2021 Walk-on
What everyone keeps forgetting in realignment...
It's all about money. So before you go asking where the Big 12 remnants will go, ask yourself one basic question first: will the Big 12 remnants make more money if they leave or if they stay?

Compare it to the Pac 12.

In 2020, the Big 12 made $38M per team. The Pac 12 made $33.6M per team. That's a $5M gap and the gap doesn't change if you add two new teams to replace the two that left.

The Big 12 remnants will also get some percent of a $152M total breakup fee from Texas and OU.

The Big 12 remnants keep their TV contract through 2025, which is vastly better than what the Pac 12 has.

The Big 12 remnants remain an autonomous conference with easier playoff access than the Pac 12.

The Big 12 remnants are geographically close (other than WV) and can keep travel costs cheaper by expanding than by going to the Pac 12.

I get that it feels like the Big 12 is done because it lost its flagship programs. But what about it is done financially? The remnants could almost certainly also tell new expansion teams that they don't get any of the breakup fee and split that 8 ways. They may even be able to tell the expansion teams they get a smaller share through 2025 when the tv contract expires. And let's not pretend joining an autonomous conference with the easiest path to the playoff isn't insanely attractive to tons of teams who would leap at that chance and still make more than they make today (BYU included).

Not to mention, the Pac 12 may have some serious issues itself in the short term. There's no guarantee they are keeping their flagship programs of USC, UCLA, and Oregon (with one of Stanford/Washington also being a viable target for the Big 10). Those 4 programs would give the Big 10 a massive revenue boost, and their departure certainly isn't going to help the Pac 12 negotiate a better tv contract.

I'm not sure the Big 12 is in a worse position right now than the Pac 12. What drives revenue is television and eyeballs. The Pac 12 has bad geography with the worst time zone and the least tv timeslots available. The Big 12 has far better geography just because of time zone slots. The Pac 12 needs teams in the Central time zone and there's no clear reason financially for Central time zone teams to go to the Pac 12.
BlueSteel2021
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BlueSteel2021
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