First off, sorry this one got away from me. I had more fun writing it than you will reading it, so if you aren't interested in the draft and draft theory you should probably stop here and I apologize for wasting your time.


I have some data points below, but are NBA stars coming more and more from the middle of the draft?
You can see for a few years foreigners were often undervalued in the cases of Antetokounmpo, Jokic, Gobert, M. Gasol and Capela. But how did Kawhi get to 15, Adebayo and Mitchell to #14 and #13, Butler to #30, Green to #35 and Harrell to #32 among others?

I put the blame a lot on AAU ball in the United States where we reward scoring first and foremost. In the NBA you have to have a specific skill or talent that elevates you and that skill cannot be scoring (it can be elite shooting, but elite "scorers" haven't worked out). Jokic is a great passer. Antetokounmpo a freak athlete. Gobert a great shot blocker. Kawhi is a great defender, Mitchell a great slasher...etc. But you also need to be more of a well rounded player and not have huge holes in your game. I think currently Europe develops players much better as they play on the professional team against guys bigger and stronger than they are so they are forced to learn skill around that.

The 2014 NBA draft is a pretty good example in my opinion. This was supposed to be one of the drafts for the ages (and it has turned out pretty good, just with different guys) with Wiggins and Parker at the top of the draft. The problem is Wiggins never learned skill growing up so he was just an athlete (one that didn't really want to play defense). So he got into the league where the athleticism gap was less and he simply couldn't do anything and never picked up the requisite skill needed to be a good NBA player. His lack of work ethic has failed him and his career as he should be one of the best defenders in the NBA with his length and athleticism. Jabari was derailed by injuries, but he never learned to play defense. I'm not talking great defense just average. His rookie year he came in and the team was 7 points better per 100 possessions on defense with him not in the game. That is horrendous.

So who have been the stars from that draft. Nikola Jokic who had been playing against pros and had figured out how to pass and get his shot up against bigger guys. Joel Embiid who was raw, but had the work ethic to go along with his freaky athleticism that he used to be great. Clint Capela who has worked his butt off as well and had the talent of rebounding and rim defending.

Anyway, the point is there is talent to be found all over the board. I would take Haliburton who was drafted at #13 last year over anyone in that entire draft class. 5 of the 6 years before that it has come from the top 3, but guys like Mitchell, Harrell, Sabonis and others are going to be big stars who were drafted later.

Highest VORP currently for draft class (VORP isn't perfect, but gives a good indication of value)
2020: #13 Tyrese Haliburton over #3 Ball and #25 Quickley
2019: #1 Zion Williamson over #21 Clarke and #2 Morant
2018: #3 Luka Doncic over #5 Young and #11 Gilgeous-Alexander
2017: #3 Jayson Taytum wins just barely over Bam Adebayo and Donovan Mitchell at #14 and #13
2016: #1 Ben Simmons over #11 Sabonis and #6 Hield
2015: #1 Karl Anthony Towns over #32 Harrell and #4 Porzingis
2014: #41 Jokic over #3 Embiid and #25 Capela
2013: #15 Giannis over #27 Gobert and #10 McCollum
2012: #6 Lillard over #1 Davis and #35 Green
2011: #15 Kawhi over #30 Butler and #1 Kyrie
2010: #10 Paul George over #1 John Wall and #9 Gordon Hayward
2009: #3 James Harden over #7 Steph Curry and #1 Blake Griffin
2008: #4 Russell Westbrook over #5 Kevin Love and #25 Nicolas Batum
2007: #2 Kevin Durant over #48 Marc Gasol and #3 Al Horford
2006: #24 Kyle Lowry over #2 Lamarcus Aldridge and #47 Paul Millsap
2005: #4 Chris Paul over #3 Deron Williams and #45 Lou Williams
2004: #9 Andre Igoudala over #1 Dwight Howard and #17 Josh Smith
2003: #1 Lebron James over #5 Dwyane Wade and #3 Carmelo Anthony
2002: Bad Draft #35 Carlos Boozer over #9 Amare Stoudemire and #1 Yao Ming
2001: #3 Pau Gasol over #28 Tony Parker and #6 Shane Battier
2000: Another Bad Draft #43 Michael Redd over #5 Mike Miller and #16 Hedo Turkoglu



35 years ago the All-NBA Team consisted of:
Kevin McHale: 3rd Overall
Larry Bird: 6th Overall
Hakeem Olajuwon: 1st Overall
Magic Johnson: 1st Overall
Michael Jordan 3rd Overall

25 years ago the All-NBA Team consisted of:
Grant Hill: 3rd Overall
Karl Malone: 13th Overall
Hakeem Olajuwon: 1st Overall
Michael Jordan: 3rd Overall
Tim Hardaway: 14th Overall

15 years ago the All-NBA Team consisted of:
Lebron James: 1st Overall
Dirk Nowitzki: 9th Overall
Amare Stoudemire: 9th Overall
Kobe Bryant: 13th Overall
Steve Nash 15th Overall

5 Years ago the All-NBA Team consisted of:
Tim Duncan: 1st Overall
Kawhi Leonard: 15th Overall
Anthony Davis: 1st Overall
James Harden: 3rd Overall
Russell Westbrook: 4th Overall

This past year's All-NBA team:
Nikola Jokic: 41st Overall
Giannis Antetokounmpo: 15th Overall
Steph Curry: 7th Overall
Luka Doncic: 3rd Overall
Kawhi Leonard: 15th Overall