How might this all go wrong? Because of Texas and O freaking U. Hear me out..

An article out of Dallas today confirmed what most people already believe, that the move by OuT is because of $$$. The Big 12 was going to get the same TV deal from providers that they had before. No raise. It paid out $34-$35M per year to those two schools (not sure how much everyone got, I assume the same? This doesn’t include tier 3 rights like LHN tho). The SEC is making $60M. Easy peasy.

The problem for me is I believe there was another factor: Playoff access. OU had easy access to the CFP and was a regular fixture as a member of the Big 12. OU would have to ask “Hey SEC! Why would I give away easy access to the CFP for a few million more per year?”. The answer would be “Well OU, we’re about to expand the playoffs from 4 to 8 or even 12! And when we do, you know the SEC will get more teams in than anyone! Roll tide!”. It makes sense.

The problem is The Alliance has been formed and it seems they are heck bent on blocking everything the SEC is trying to do. Gordon Gee, who is on the playoff committee (he’s Big 12, so while he’s not officially in The Alliance YET, I’m sure he’s angry at OuT), has come out AGAINST expansion recently (he was a strong proponent of it previously) and he said that leaders in the other “Alliance” conferences would also not vote to expand. Why the change of heart? I believe it’s to screw over OuT and the SEC.

So now, today, OU and TX are looking at a world where they are going into a MUCH tougher football conference and the Playoffs are going to remain at 4 teams. Sure they get more money, but those schools have been able to print their own with the LHN and by waltzing into the Playoffs every year. $20M/year isn’t very much to those two blue bloods.

Conclusion: what if the Big 12 is leaking to the media (strange that every outlet is now reporting it from “sources” that have been notoriously tight lipped in every other round of expansion) because they saw a crack in the OU/TX front? What if OU/TX ultimately change their mind and choose to stay? I assume the members would prefer the status quo to bringing in more mouths (hope I’m wrong and the Orphan 8 vote us in anyway).

If there is something that could screw this up, feels like this is the scenario that would do it. We all know the story of when those two were headed to the Pac12 and were “5 minutes away” from joining before backing out (you’re welcome UU). Maybe they pull that crap again?