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Sep 20, 2021
1:41:06pm
Blue Print Truly Addicted User
Game theory is designed to minimize uncontrollable risk.
It’s not looking for the highest statistical result. It wants to avoid controllable adverse outcomes.

If you have a choice between two pass plays on 3rd and 5. Do you want the one that averages 10 yards with a higher risk of getting less than 5 yards, or would you prefer the one that averages 7 with a better chance of getting the 5 needed?

Obviously, you take the second. The goal isn’t to maximize yards, it’s to get the first down.

That’s a simple example of the kind of analysis game theory does. Obviously, it gets a lot more complicated than that.


But if you have a case where the goal is virtually guaranteed, you NEVER take any chances that could put that goal at risk, even if the average case by taking the chance is better than the guaranteed case.

With needing a touchdown, an extra point and a field goal to get to overtime, all in 82 seconds; the victory was for all intents and purposes secured. You don’t need to take any more risk in order to make it more secure. If lightning struck you’d be hearing things like “I’d rather win by 9 than 2.”

The potential gain isn’t worth even a minuscule increase in risk.
Blue Print
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Blue Print
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