But you still have some uncontrollable risk in that scenario…

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Sep 20, 2021
2:26:50pm

WP17 King of the Kenai

With kneeling it then you have no uncontrolled risk and stay up 2 scores, same as if you kicked and scored

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WP17

Bio page: WP17
Joined: Sep 12, 2016
Last login: Apr 19, 2024
Total posts: 9,683 (810 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

POLL: Regarding the decision to take a knee instead of kick the extra point, which outcome would have been more likely?

BYUCLA

9/20/21 12:02pm

Likelihood is only part of the equation… you don’t buy life insurance because of the likelihood.

WP17

9/20/21 12:04pm

I’m not sure I follow. What else is there consider if the potential outcome is

BYUCLA

9/20/21 12:32pm

You have to weigh probabilities multiplied by the downside/upside of those probabilities

WP17

9/20/21 1:05pm

Except I wasn’t considering the odds of a 2pt kick return alone, but the added

BYUCLA

9/20/21 1:11pm

when you have the backup kicker in there might as well not take the chance

Cougz19

9/20/21 12:06pm

This is a game theory problem not a probability one.

Blue Print

9/20/21 12:25pm

You are leaving out an important part of the equation

BYUCLA

9/20/21 12:31pm

No I’m not.

Blue Print

9/20/21 12:39pm

There are no guarantees in football

Still Questing

9/20/21 12:57pm

I’m not disagreeing with your conclusion, but I am disagreeing with your logic

BYUCLA

9/20/21 12:58pm

I'm not talking probabilities.

Blue Print

9/20/21 1:02pm

I guess I just think that considering it using game theory gives you a lower

BYUCLA

9/20/21 1:08pm

For real though, I’m not familiar with game theory and am not sure I understand

BYUCLA

9/20/21 1:12pm

Game theory is designed to minimize uncontrollable risk.

Blue Print

9/20/21 1:41pm

IE, if kicking minimizes your risk of losing, you should kick it.

Still Questing

9/20/21 1:47pm

No the exact opposite. "Does not kicking do any significant harm to winning."

Blue Print

9/20/21 1:50pm

If kicking does significant harm to winning then it's not minimizing your risk

Still Questing

9/20/21 1:56pm

But you still have some uncontrollable risk in that scenario…

WP17

9/20/21 2:26pm

Kneeling does not remove all risk — it gives you a different set of risks

Still Questing

9/20/21 3:22pm

But no time runs off the clock on the conversion attempt.

gmj81

9/20/21 12:41pm

I'm in the kick the extra point camp but I don't think Lamb made a bad choice. With 1:20 left and no timeouts left I

HarlemCoug

9/20/21 12:39pm

This was the takeaway for me. If they're thinking this much about a situation

Still Questing

9/20/21 1:12pm

They can score very quickly. Guaranteeing 2 possessions needed was smart.

Byron McNertney

9/20/21 12:42pm

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