It's basically undefeated G5s plus 1-loss Houston (who could still record 3 combined wins against Cincinnati and SMU and get the highest G5 conference champ bid), every undefeated or 1-loss P5 (includes Independents ND/BYU), and Florida, aTm, and Clemson. I know there are other 2-loss P5s that could win out, but I feel if you have 2 losses already (except the 3 aforementioned programs), you will almost certainly lose again and I don't see a lot of appetite for 3-loss teams outside of this group. Now, theoretically any P5 team with a chance to win their division could be included since they could win their CCG, but I'm not going down that route as there's too many possible permutations (and then I'd have to include Utah). Suffice it to say: this group will get whittled down in a hurry with all the head-to-head matchups happening over the next month.

19 of the schools will play AT LEAST 3 other teams in this group in the regular season, some play 4, and Auburn/Penn State will play 5 (6 if they make their CCG). Over the next 2 weeks, there are 13 games involving teams in this group playing each other. So, there's a lot of losses to be had and a lot of teams will get eliminated: in 2 weeks, it's quite possible there will only realistically be about 24 teams remaining that are truly in the hunt for those 12 spots. And that's not even counting possible upsets.

In parentheses I have the number of games they have won against other people from the "chosen" group (which I would consider NY6-caliber wins at this point, if I were on the Committee) as well as how many games they have remaining against the group (difficult games), which would include potential Conference Championship game appearances. I put a space between the groups as I felt the first group can't afford to lose, the second group could still lose a game and make NY6 (without automatic qualification), and the third group could survive 2 losses and still make a NY6 game (without automatic qualification).

Houston (0/2)
SMU (0/3)
Clemson (1/3)
UTSA (0/0)
San Diego State (0/1)
Wyoming (0/1)
Florida (0/2)
aTm (0/4)
Coastal Carolina (0/0)
[BYU] (1/1)

Cincinnati (1/2)
Wake Forest (0/4)
NC State (1/3)
Boston College (1/4)
Pitt (0/3)
Virginia Tech (0/4)
Baylor (0/4)
Texas Tech (1/4)
Texas (1/4)
Maryland (0/5)
Notre Dame (0/1, I want to put them in the "can't afford to lose" group but it's Notre Dame)
Oregon (1/1)
Oregon State (0/3)
Arizona State (0/2)
Arkansas (1/4; beating Bama moves you to the third group)
Ole Miss (0/4; 10-2 Ole Miss COULD get left out since they have fewer quality wins)

Oklahoma (0/5)
Oklahoma State (1/4)
Iowa (1/2)
Michigan (0/5)
Michigan State (0/5)
Ohio State (0/5, I want to put them in the "1-loss group" but it's Ohio State)
Penn State (1/6)
Georgia (2/4)
Kentucky (1/2)
Alabama (2/4)
Auburn (0/6, I group Auburn here b/c they potentially have 6 "NY6 caliber" games left and at 9-3 with losses to current 1/2/4, they could make it)