Note that this list is based on who I think has the best shot at winning the title. Regular season really doesn't matter, as we've seen in the past.

*DISCLAIMER* This list assumes the following:
No major injuries happen to superstars or stars (or those that are projected to stay out the whole year, like Kawhi or Jamaal Murray or recover sooner get to 90% like Klay).
No major blockbuster trades happen (like Dame or Beal getting traded).
Covid is a non issue (ie, Kyrie, Isaac, and Beal either get vaxxed or the NBA doesn't care anymore).
All teams have full crowds again. (homecourt DOES matter!)

(I know that this isn't realistic because somebody will get hurt

1. Milwaukee Bucks
I'm incredibly high on the Bucks. Yes, their offense was average at best in the playoffs, but their defense was absolutely elite. Giannis and Jrue Holiday is a nightmare combo for any offensive player, and Khris Middleton is still a fantastic player all around. Donte DiVencenzo is a dynamic playmaker who's a solid defender to boot, and he's coming back from injury. The loss of PJ Tucker hurts from a defensive standpoint, but it more than helps their offense (he was essentially a zero on offense without offensive boards). They also just won the championship and exorcised their defensive demons. I have no idea how anybody stops Giannis when he decides to bully anyone and everyone down low.

2. Brooklyn Nets
I'm a bit lower on the Nets than consensus. Yes, they have Kyrie, KD, and Harden, three of the best scorers the league has ever scene. That being said, none of them has lifted a team as the alpha to a title. Durant was epic in their playoff run this past year, but I just can't see Harden, a known choker, putting up numbers. Then they have a huge big problem. People are treating Lamarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, and Paul Millsap like they are still All Stars. They aren't. None of them have been in several years (Millsap is a very good contributor). None of them are great defenders, especially on the perimeter, and I only trust Aldridge to space the floor. If the Nets are on fire, they are unstoppable. If they aren't, what are they? They are going to BLEED on defense (Their best defensive series was against the worst Finals team in decades offensively, and they were missing two of their bad defensive players Harden and Kyrie). They are also going to bleed rebounds. I could see them winning the Finals. I could also see them getting bounced in the second round again.

3. Utah Jazz
Definitely a bit of homering going on here, but they have potential. Donovan is still improving every year (work on that defense!), and if Conley is healthy, that is one of the best backcourts in the NBA. Gobert absolutely HAS to make opponents punish for switching against him, whether it be a drop step dunk or attacking the offensive glass. I love the Jared Butler pickup, as he adds yet another ball handler to this team. They should continue to hit more threes and make their free throws, absolute musts in the playoffs. Hopefully they get past their playoff demons this year.

4. Denver Nuggets
This hinges on Jamaal Murray. If he gets healthy and looks like an All Star again (which, remind you, is not bubble murry), this team is scary. They have many scoring options, the reigning MVP and best offensive big man of all time in Jokic, a young scoring machine in MPJ, and the deadliest two man game with Jokic and Murray. Aaron Gordon looked to be worth the trade defensively before the injury, and he brings a physicality that this team needs. Jeff green and Jamychal Green should be solid backups for them. (I think that if Murray doesn't get injured, there's a dang good shot they go to the Finals last year.) Regardless, they are a dangerous team.

5. Phoenix Suns
Waaaaaat?! A finals team that brought almost everyone back, and they are dropping? Well, yes. This all hinges on CP3. Last year brought unbelievable luck injurywise to the Suns, and this was the second time in a long time that CP3 wasn't injured in the playoffs in some way, shape, or form. However, he's 36 and aging quickly. He showed some brilliant flashes, but I'm pretty sure that he's going to start dropping off heavily this year. However, Booker, Ayton, and Bridges all form a solid triad, so we'll see what happens with them. I just think last year was a bit of a fluke, but they still are dangerous. (Ayton in particular is intriguing to me. Can he improve on the defensive side enough to rim protect well?)

6. Miami Heat
Three players are going to be nightmares for offenses: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry. Duncan Robinson is an ace shooter, and Tyler Herro should be better than he was last year. I'm concerned about their depth after that, however. PJ Tucker is hustle incarnate, but he's awful offensively. Markeiff Morris is a decent player, but he won't be playing much for any Finals team. Victor Oladipo is a huge question mark in terms of who he really is: is he the near MVP talent that he was pre injury in Indiana? Or is he a lackluster guard that just can't come back from injury? After these guys, there are a TON of nobodies on the Heat's roster. Their lack of depth will murder them in the regular season. But in the playoffs, their best five man rotation rivals the best.

7. LA Lakers
Controversial pick, the Westbrook trade hurt the Lakers far more than it helped them. Westbrook helps the Lakers in the regular season when his sheer motor and will can help snag a random game in February. However, in every single playoffs since the KD years, Westbrook has been atrocious. He shoots poorly, and he shoots a lot. The only thing I can see that would "help" the Lakers is benching him in the 4th quarter of EVERY GAME, something I just don't see happening to a guy they are paying 41 million dollars to. Westbrook, AD, and LeBron just don't provide a ton of spacing in terms of consistency (AD and LeBron can hit huge shots, but don't expect them to be snipers). Behind them, they have either no spacing shooting wise (Ariza, Talen Horten-Tucker, Dwight Howard, Rondo,) or their shooters don't provide defense (Melo, Wayne Ellington, Nunn, Wesley Matthews). There's no true two way guy (like KCP). I just don't see a good rotation for them without severely compromising their offense. Also, LeBron looked incredibly slowed down post injury, and he's gonna be 38. Father Time is undefeated.

8. Warriors
The Warriors present an interesting image. They found some of their Warriors ball without Wiseman to worry about. However, I worry that Klay won't be 90% of what he was pre injury and that his defense will slip (he still should be a knock down shooter). I also struggle to think that they'd just bench their young prospects and/or trade them in order to "win now". The Iggy signing isn't a big deal at all (he's become an awful shooter and hasn't played much with the Heat). I worry that there's just nothing there beyond Steph, Draymond, Klay. However, if those three are in peakish form (ie, Steph is in the MVP race, Klay is 95% of himself, and Draymond discovers SOMETHING on offense), they could be a threat for another ring.

Nobody else really as a shot. I don't believe in Simmons in the playoffs, therefore Philly is eliminated. The Mavs needed someone to create for Luka, but they didn't get one and KP needs to show up. I doubt he will, therefore leaving them well short of the Finals. Portland just doesn't have much of a system right now, and they are too much of a question mark. The Hawks have one more year before reaching the Finals, but Trey Young needs to learn to play defense before that happens. (I do like the rest of their team right now. The problem is will they pay all of their young guys?) The Celtics need a legitimate point guard, and they still don't have one. Who knows how Horford is going to play now? (That being said, Tatum and Jaylen Brown are all stars legitimately.) Knicks have a bunch of solid players, but no amazing ones. Clippers are going to struggle without Kawhi, and he went down pretty late in the season last year. I don't know if he'll be back at all, and they still need a good point guard (Bledsoe is fine in the regular season, but he's SO BAD in the playoffs). The Pelicans just don't have enough shooting or defense (partly the fault of Zion), so they aren't gonna do well. The Bulls have zero defense to speak of. I have no idea what's going to happen with the Pacers (Carlisle is a great coach, so he should make them better, right?). Grizzlies are good, but I don't know how Steven Adams fits compared to Valuncunias. Everybody else is either tanking or going to be really bad.