And does Washington DC and those in the White House with the nuclear codes get to keep those? Those two things have a huge impact on outcome.
If we're talking about eliminating all military and government forces, that makes a difference.
Also - what does "winning" mean? Does one side have to take over and occupy the other in order to win? Or is this like the original civil war - with one side just trying to keep the other side out and/or trying to get them to give up?