Put us at 12 knowing there is no scenario that moves us to NY6. If Okie St smashed Baylor, then they go into top 4 and Baylor or OU take Sugar Bowl spot. If Okie St barely wins or Baylor wins, they both stay above us. Neither us or Mich St play so Mich St stays in front of us. If Cinncy loses, they or Houston then take up the G5 slot.
We have to pass Baylor without Okie St getting into top 4 and that is not possible.