It will either be the Fiesta Bowl or the Guarantee Rate Bowl. The Independence Bowl is not happening.
I have covered this a billion times, but the B1G has 9 eligible bowl teams for 8 slots (including the Rose Bowl). With Michigan State and Michigan taking NY6 spots, that leaves 6 teams for 7 slots. That means there will be an opening in the Quick Lane Bowl or Guarantee Rate Bowl. Although the GRB has the 7th pick, the QLB has a higher payout at 8. PSU will be picked up by the Pinstripe Bowl, which means MD is the team left. For travel purposes MD will likely go to Detroit for the QLB.
Now BYU has an option to replace one of its Independence Bowl commitments with a GRB slot if one is available. Although the Independence Bowl has a higher published payout, the actual agreed amounts when an independent team contracts a bowl are much lower. When factoring in travel costs, accessibility for fans, and ability to recoup the costs incurred from buying its allotment of tickets, it is likely BYU will execute that option (why else would they create the option to begin with). Also, LSU can slide into the Independence Bowl slot since the SEC has more eligible teams than slots.
Based on the above it is very clearly BYU will be in Phoenix at the end of the year one way or the other so stop this Independence Bowl crap. Not happening.