The USA is currently in 2nd place with 15 points through 8 games (six remaining). Canada is in first place with 16 points and Mexico & Panama are just behind with 14 points. The top 3 teams qualify for the World Cup and the 4th place team plays a single match playoff in Qatar in June vs the Oceania champion (likely New Zealand). Costa Rica is in 5th place with nine points and seems to be the last team with a realistic shot of qualifying from Concacaf.

The USA will play a set of 3 matches starting next week and then again in late March. The USA will have to play at Mexico and at Costa Rica in the final set of matches where they have historically struggled. As such, it will be critical for the US to maximize their points next week vs El Salvador, at Canada, and Honduras. The USA should be able to get at least 6 points and hopefully 7 or even 9 with Davis out for Canada but the weather could play a huge factor in all of these matches. In the previous two sets of three matches, the USA sadly only earned 5 & 6 points.

I was hoping to see a clear viable path for the USA to qualify by February 2nd but I'm not sure that such a path exists. There are simply far to many variables with so many games left to be played. But for fun, these are a few of the optimistically likely possibilities...

- Any scenario where the USA earns 4 or more points in the next group of matches than Costa Rica and 2 or more points than Jamaica will guarantee the USA at worst a 4th place finish.

- If the USA earns 9 points, Mexico beats Costa Rica & Panama at home, Costa Rica beats Panama at home, Costa Rica ties versus Jamaica, and Panama losses to Jamaica the USA will have officially qualified for the World Cup.

- If the USA earns 9 points, Mexico beats Costa Rica & Panama at home, and Costa Rica draws at home vs Panama the USA would advance with a draw at home vs Panama in the final set of matches. The USA would be guaranteed at worst the 4th spot.

- If the USA earns 7 points (ties Canada), Mexico beats Costa Rica & Panama at home, and Costa Rica draws at home vs Panama the USA would advance with a win at home vs Panama in the final set of matches.

If the USA earns six points or fewer they will likely need to get a win vs Panama and possibly points at Costa Rica or at Mexico to advance.

At this point it would seem best for the USA for Mexico to win and for Canada & Panama to lose. Canada has a lot of travel playing at El Salvador & at Honduras in between the USA game. Panama also will potentially move from contender to pretender with very tough matches at Costa Rica & at Mexico. This is where the USA absolutely needs to make its move.

Summary - earning automatic qualification is very unlikely for the USA after the next set of games but if they take care of business they could lock up the 4th spot & set up a situation where they just need to beat or tie with Panama to advance.