Team with more points per play (explosiveness) wins 71% of the time:

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Jun 22, 2022
12:01:55pm

molodyets Slava Ukraini

Football Study Hall

Using the Five Factors as predictors

Using college football's Five Factors as means for college football predictions.

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/7/30/9074771/college-football-five-factors-predictors

Football Study Hall

College football's 5 most important stats

Explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers are the five factors most directly correlated to winning football games. Check out the numbers.

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors

If you average 1.5+ yards per play more than your opponent, you will win 90% of the time.

Points per play - 0.2+ you win 96% of the time.

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molodyets

Previous username: patches1391
Bio page: molodyets
Joined: Mar 26, 2006
Last login: Apr 19, 2024
Total posts: 43,142 (19,244 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

FWIW, Tuiaki said they did a lot of analytical research on things which actually matter with defensive play

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

6/22/22 11:46am

1st insight: Tackle guy with ball

braddahmike

6/22/22 11:48am

Preventing big plays is the primary goal of the system because those hurt you more than anything else.

molodyets

6/22/22 11:48am

He's got a point but you gotta stop the other team on downs as well.

Kajdin

6/22/22 11:49am

The biggest problem last year, by far, was giving up almost 5 yards a run on first down

Indy Coug

6/22/22 11:51am

I just remember dreading 3rd and long

AF Cougar

6/22/22 12:07pm

It felt almost automatic for the opponent. I'd be interested to see how our 3rd and long defensive stats compare

IdahoCoug

6/22/22 12:14pm

I just looked up our stats for opponent's 3rd down conversion. So not 3rd and long, per se, but still relevant.

IdahoCoug

6/22/22 12:24pm

We were 109th in opponents' 4th down conversion rate.

IdahoCoug

6/22/22 12:26pm

BYU was 106th at 43%

Indy Coug

6/22/22 12:31pm

The stats I looked up didn't include FCS opponents, only games involving two FBS teams

IdahoCoug

6/22/22 3:00pm

This is a good example of why looking at stats as N/130 doesn't tell you much. We had 194 3rd downs last year (maybe

molodyets

6/22/22 12:39pm

114th out of 130 isn't very good, right?

boctabulous

6/22/22 5:31pm

And I look at 3rd and long as a VERY big play. Them converting on 3rd and long

viper

6/22/22 12:16pm

Gotta stop the run on first down, that's the most important rule of defense 101.

Mitty

6/22/22 12:25pm

Tuiaki did say stopping the run was a top priority

Dr T-bone

6/22/22 2:56pm

Seems like I've heard that many times before. Kind of like when we hear them say

ManicBlue

6/22/22 5:11pm

BYU opponents gained 5 or more yards on 1st Down 46.6% of the time in 2021. That was up from 34.3% in 2020 & 42.1% in 19

Spiff

6/22/22 4:59pm

I think that's an interesting conversation - I honestly don't know the answer.

Eddie

6/22/22 11:53am

Giving up a long play (especially a score) is an outlier of offensive performance, so you are in effect spotting them 7

molodyets

6/22/22 11:55am

Team with more points per play (explosiveness) wins 71% of the time:

molodyets

6/22/22 12:01pm

Are there teams that don't try and prevent big plays?

Coug

6/22/22 11:55am

RE: Preventing big plays is the primary goal of the system because those hurt

Heath Squashwell

6/22/22 11:55am

Or just limiting the number of points scored. That doesn't factor in time of

cougaman

6/22/22 12:13pm

Three words.... Coastal Caro Lina.

RealityCheck

6/22/22 12:25pm

Five Words? Ala Bama Bir Ming Ham

Happy As Larry

6/22/22 2:35pm

Was he saying it is research since the end of last season, or in general? Because if it's stuff he's learned over his

IdahoCoug

6/22/22 11:51am

Whatever side you’re on regarding Tuiaki and his D the following is true:

Beggar

6/22/22 11:51am

RE: FWIW, Tuiaki said they did a lot of analytical research on things which

oryguncoug

6/22/22 11:52am

This is amazing... Sitake, Lamb, Clune and now Tuiaki... former DC's and current DC experience...

Coug

6/22/22 11:53am

The plan of the defense is a failing one.

kimdaddy35

6/22/22 11:55am

It is the defense Sitake wants. That won’t change with the coordinator unless he

Charles Darwin

6/22/22 11:57am

Not according to Sitake's own mouth.

kimdaddy35

6/22/22 11:59am

I will trust his actions over how some fan took his words

Charles Darwin

6/22/22 12:00pm

In other words you don't pay attention. I figured based on your comments.

kimdaddy35

6/22/22 12:16pm

I wouldn’t make a habit of putting what is said in PR situations ahead of what

Charles Darwin

6/22/22 12:21pm

21-4. If there was a big reason to change they'd do it.

Blueto

6/22/22 12:00pm

'19 Toledo, '19 USF, '20 CC, and '21 UAB games had similar feels

Doogal McCougar

6/22/22 12:20pm

The plan isn't the issue. We saw that with the first 4 games last year.

Gorgias

6/22/22 12:08pm

Recruiting and development, but let's not put any blame on him because he just

cougaman

6/22/22 12:16pm

Very few teams outside the SEC could compete with that many key injuries.

rad dawg

6/22/22 12:24pm

More excuses.

cougaman

6/22/22 6:01pm

I didn't hear anything that lead me to believe that the research was just done this year. That is CB echo chamber.

PJMort

6/22/22 11:56am

But 3 former and 1 current DC can't figure out the issues?

Coug

6/22/22 11:56am

They didn't do analytics to see "what was wrong". They wanted affirmation of the things to focus the most.

Indy Coug

6/22/22 11:56am

Perhaps we should consider that they are not all clueless but think they are

Charles Darwin

6/22/22 11:57am

Nah. People here know much better.

Blueto

6/22/22 11:59am

Seriously. Have we stooped to Yelp level on CB?

kiyoshige

6/22/22 6:36pm

You sound like the old-school baseball scouts in Moneyball.

Gorgias

6/22/22 11:59am

That's an amazing interpretation, anyway. CB FTW!

Abe Froman

6/22/22 12:00pm

Every team in college football does this.

rad dawg

6/22/22 12:01pm

Sometimes humans are more receptive to change when a little more objective

BringYourUltimate

6/22/22 5:39pm

We can hope

RUNBYU1

6/22/22 5:48pm

I'm totally buying his explanation of playing "aggressive coverages" as opposed

BGRTHNUMEGO

6/22/22 11:54am

Drives of 18 plays or more are very rare in CFB, so we've decided to focus our defense

Disco Lemonade

6/22/22 11:57am

Not 18, but 12-play 7 minute drives seem to happen pretty regularly vs BYU

Kajdin

6/22/22 12:00pm

The non-garbage-time national average for plays per drive is 5.71. Last year we avg 6.28. The difference between top 10

molodyets

6/22/22 12:28pm

Also, national average time off the clock - 144 seconds vs 163. 20 seconds of playing time. However that's not adjusted

molodyets

6/22/22 12:29pm

The problem is other teams aren't so stupid to continually give the other team short passes and open runs. So

kimdaddy35

6/22/22 12:03pm

It’s sad that

I'mBatman

6/22/22 12:05pm

Research says to basically never punt. Why are we still punting? Why is anyone

Iman23

6/22/22 12:05pm

For one, that research essentially assumes that the Law of Large Numbers will bail you out in the long run

Indy Coug

6/22/22 12:24pm

It doesn't say never punt. They have a table of when to punt and when not to.

Genghis Spreads

6/22/22 12:28pm

They forgot to look into the actual playing of defense, however.

Mitty

6/22/22 12:23pm

Well geez that makes me feel better. If there's one guy that can take a look at

byubyu

6/22/22 12:36pm

I was pleasantly surprised the variety of defensive play calling against 1st 3 PAC12 teams. Then USF

CLCougar

6/22/22 1:13pm

Recruit better on defense? Specifically d-line and linebacker.

legiaourbana

6/22/22 2:15pm

What's Tuiaki's take on the "things that actually matter"?

Using the Five Factors as predictors

College football's 5 most important stats

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