Jun 22, 2022
12:39:44pm
12:39:44pm
This is a good example of why looking at stats as N/130 doesn't tell you much. We had 194 3rd downs last year (maybe
less/more if there were penalties, I just took a straight count of plays where down = 3).
Across 13 games thats just under 15 a game (14.9) and opp converted 6.7
To be top 25 in the country, we would need to be at 35% - 5.2 vs 6.7
So we're talking about 1.5 3rd down conversions a game. You could give up 2 more on a drive that doesn't end in points and it's a wash. You could give up bigger plays on 2nd down and not have as many 3rd downs.
3rd down conversion doesn't tell you anything except that you didn't do a good enough job on first and second down. Average distance to go on 3rd down last year was 7.18 but we faced 6.4.
Across 13 games thats just under 15 a game (14.9) and opp converted 6.7
To be top 25 in the country, we would need to be at 35% - 5.2 vs 6.7
So we're talking about 1.5 3rd down conversions a game. You could give up 2 more on a drive that doesn't end in points and it's a wash. You could give up bigger plays on 2nd down and not have as many 3rd downs.
3rd down conversion doesn't tell you anything except that you didn't do a good enough job on first and second down. Average distance to go on 3rd down last year was 7.18 but we faced 6.4.
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Messages
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FWIW, Tuiaki said they did a lot of analytical research on things which actually matter with defensive play
6/22/22 11:46am
Preventing big plays is the primary goal of the system because those hurt you more than anything else.
6/22/22 11:48am
6/22/22 11:51am
6/22/22 11:53am
6/22/22 2:35pm
6/22/22 11:53am
6/22/22 12:00pm
6/22/22 12:20pm
6/22/22 12:16pm
I didn't hear anything that lead me to believe that the research was just done this year. That is CB echo chamber.
6/22/22 11:56am
6/22/22 11:59am
6/22/22 6:36pm
6/22/22 5:48pm
6/22/22 11:57am
6/22/22 12:05pm
6/22/22 12:23pm