Fewer possessions = more volatility (bad vs weaker opponents)
This partially explains the surprising losses to Boise st (9), UAB (9), and coastal carolina (10) and closer than expected wins vs Georgia southern (9), Washington st (9), etc
The net better team (offense and defense diff) wants more possessions, the worse team wants fewer. More possessions reduces the odds that turnovers, string of poor possessions, or other “unlikely” events impact the end outcome.
If byu is playing Alabama (or ND, Ore, Baylor this year), we’d want as few possessions as possible. Run the clock, extend their drives, and hope things break our way. In those losses above, we’d want more possessions.
This is also why teams slow down with late game or large leads. It reduces the likelihood/odds of the comeback with fewer possessions
# of possessions is less about ball control, time of possession, wearing down, or injuries than it is about statistical probability and regression to the mean (for better or worse) with more overall possessions
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Originally posted on Jun 23, 2022 at 7:41:13am
Message modified by insanobueno on Jun 23, 2022 at 7:46:43am
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